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Tracking a partly cloudy afternoon before Memorial Day weekend storm chances

TODAY: Thursday is partly cloudy and mostly dry, with a high near 80. Winds remain out of the southeast at 8 mph.

TONIGHT: A warm front approaches this evening, driving another round of thunderstorms to move in from the west after 7 p.m. Storms will be isolated and have limited potential for hail and gusty winds. Storms weaken with northeast extent. Temperatures fall only into the mid-60s.

EXTENDED: Starting warm, and muggier south of a warm front that moves in, ingredients will be present for storms. Adding to this, a cold front will agitate and stir a chance for storms by the morning. This cold front will pass through the day, leading to more thunderstorm chances. Two scenarios are possible here; one being a round of morning storms along and ahead of the cold front ahead and a second round additionally further east in the afternoon, OR a quieter morning, with storms mostly holding off until the afternoon. Both scenarios means a chance for strong storms, but in either case, the strongest storms are expected east of Columbia and Jefferson City toward Montgomery City and Hermann. Behind this cold front, we'll be cooler and drier Saturday with partly cloudy skies and highs in the 70s to just near 80. With that said, storm chances return Saturday night, as our next system is quick on the heels of Friday's storm. A warm front brings widespread storms, including some strong, Saturday night into Sunday. An afternoon strong storm chance Sunday is likely in the warm sector, but this may be east of us by that time. This also will greatly impact temperatures and determine whether we end up in the upper 70s or 80s. We'll hang on to clouds and a shower chance Monday, but then drier and cooler weather returns Tuesday and Wednesday.

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Chance Gotsch

Chance Gotsch grew up just south of St. Louis and moved to Columbia to attend the University of Missouri to pursue a degree in Atmospheric Sciences.

His interest in weather begin as a child when he used to be afraid of storms.

Chance joined the ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team in February 2021. He is currently the weekday noon meteorologist.


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