Finding reality in winter weather forecasts

A flurry of maps and probabilities comes out when winter weather approaches, and while much of this is useful, some of it can be incorrect or misleading.

Dozens of weather models simulate different versions of the atmosphere into the future with many different outcomes. This can produce extremes that lead to unrealistic expectations and misinformation.

One single map or model will not usually capture the full possibility of a weather event. A knowledgeable analysis of model output and comparison is needed to get the full picture.

Common practice in meteorology involves probabilistic views of models rather than relying on one output. These probabilities capture a range of possibilities and impacts that typically converge on one solution as an event gets closer.

Probabilities can still be misleading, especially at long lead times. Weather forecasts naturally become more uncertain with time, so probabilities drop or diverge far into the future. This means when looking at snow totals for a winter system, patience is key. A snow forecast will only be most accurate within a day or two of an event, don't take the first forecast you see to heart.