Tracking rounds of showers and storms, severe threat on Sunday
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds and cool with lows in the upper 40s.
TOMORROW: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and storms toward evening. Highs in the low to mid-60s.
EXTENDED: Tonight is looking clear and cool with temperatures remaining in the 50s for high school football. Clouds build overnight, but we stay near our seasonal average in the upper 40s into Saturday morning. A warm front slowly begins to inch in our direction for the weekend, keeping clouds around and bringing showers and a few thunderstorms to far southern Missouri during the day. As the boundary moves north Saturday night, steady rain and thunderstorms build in, bringing heavy rainfall to the northern sections of Mid-Missouri through Sunday morning. A big caveat in the forecast will be how far north that front can get on Sunday before the cold front starts advancing in from the west. If it slows down and keeps rain over us into the afternoon, we could end up not seeing much severe weather. The farther north the warm front gets, the higher our severe weather potential will be on Sunday. We'll have some dry time if the second scenario plays out to allow the atmosphere to warm up and destabilize further. This will provide fuel for strong thunderstorms to develop ahead of the cold front. A few of these initial storms will pose the threat of large hail and a tornado through late afternoon into early evening. The wind threat looks highest as storms develop right along the cold front into Sunday evening and progresses east. The severe weather threat looks to come to an end before 10PM, with cooler air by Monday. Highs to start off next week on Monday will only reach about 60 degrees behind the cold front. Another strong system develops across the northern Plains and moves in to the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing a chance for more showers and a few rumbles of thunder through Wednesday morning. Severe weather is not expected with that batch at this time for Mid-Missouri. A cooler airmass settles in as that system exits, leaving us in the low 60s for the rest of next week. Halloween is still looking dry for now!
