Tracking a weekend warmup, and growing rain chances next week
TODAY: Friday is looking even warmer than Thursday, and by a good margin. Temperatures reach near 80 degrees with sustained southwest winds around 10-15 mph and mostly sunny skies. Winds may gust to 20-25 mph this afternoon.
TONIGHT: Skies remain mostly clear, and winds relax to a light southerly breeze. Temperatures remain in the mid-50s.
EXTENDED: A warm start, mostly sunny skies, and an even stronger southwest breeze will mean the sky is the limit on temperatures for Saturday. Given the wind direction, wind speed, and how dry the air and ground is, we will be in a scenario where model guidance notoriously struggles to keep up with actual temperatures. So, we'll go with the top end of data which suggests highs may end up near mid-80s for some. This has been steadily increasing in recent days, so we may have to bump numbers higher. Regardless, it's going to be well warmer than normal. For perspective, Columbia's record high on Saturday is 88 degrees, set back in 1899. For now, that number remains out of reach. Sunday will also be warm, likely in the 80s, but we'll have more clouds to contend with, so we may not be as warm. Chances for rain return late Sunday night, but most of the day will remain dry, and that chance may not materialize on Sunday at all. There is much higher confidence in widespread rain on Monday as a cold front approaches. Timing is still uncertain, as there's been a lot of change with this set up as of late. It looks like the front may become a stalled boundary nearby on Monday, along which another low pressure will move in from the south overnight into Tuesday. If this is the case, this significantly increases the time we spend in rain chances, and has thus greatly increased potential rain totals. It's now entirely possible that we could end up with more than 2 inches between Sunday night and Wednesday. This is a big change from what was projected just days ago, so it's important to stay tuned, but it's looking increasingly wet early next week. Temperatures will likely fall into the 70s on Monday, 60s by Tuesday, and end in the 50s by midweek.
