Groundhog Day predictions and accuracy

A famous annual weather prediction will be made on Sunday morning by a unique figure, a rodent with a pretty poor track record. Groundhog Day on February 2nd marks the day that Punxsutawney Phil will bring omens of an enduring winter or the hope of an early spring.

Records for Groundhog Day in the United States go back to the 1880s but this tradition is rooted in German festivals brought over by Pennsylvania Dutch immigrants. Several animals have been consulted for weather prediction from badgers to bears, and even nonliving things like statues.

Today, if the groundhog does not see its shadow, this calls for an early arrival of spring. If it instead sees its shadow and burrows back in its hole, six more weeks of winter can be expected.

While he is the most famous, Punxsutawney Phil is not nearly the most accurate. He's even worse than random guessing! This groundhog (or woodchuck) has been making seasonal forecasts since 1887 and has only gotten it right about a third of the time depending on how you critique him.

NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information graded several famous groundhogs and found that Punxsutawney Phil is barely in the top 20 for most accurate animal forecasters. He is majorly outperformed by Lander Lil in Wyoming, a bronze statue of a prairie dog in the top 3 with about 75% accuracy.

Still, crowds of up to 40,000 may gather in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania in the dead of winter to see the groundhog emerge. Most of the time, he doesn't stay out long. Phil has not seen his shadow only 21 times in over 100 years of predictions. But he has been very optimistic recently, predicting an early spring for 6 years since 2011, including last year in 2024.

If Phil keeps following this trend he may improve his accuracy as spring forecasts suggest warmer temperatures for much of the country to the south and east, but cold is favored in the northern Plains.