Climate Matters: Record ocean heat could drive active hurricane season
The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is just a few weeks away and several signs are pointing to an extremely active setup this year. Alarm bells have been ringing for months as 2024 started off with record warm ocean temperatures and longer-range weather patterns came into better focus.
The most glaring signal of what this season could hold has already had forecasters concerned since the last round of Atlantic hurricanes. Sea surface temperatures have been off the charts since mid-2023 and are still reaching new heights over a year later. Researchers have described this Atlantic heat wave as "astonishing" "unprecedented" and simply "crazy". And now other atmospheric factors may be at play for this year's hurricanes.
While the 2023 season also experienced record ocean heat (now dwarfed by newer data) the presence of an El Niño pattern possibly subdued some tropical activity. The El Niño pattern occurs over the Pacific Ocean but influences upper-level winds around the globe and is typically associated with fewer Atlantic tropical systems. Still, 2023 was the fourth busiest Atlantic hurricane season on record as warm oceans overrode El Niño conditions.
The opposite La Niña pattern is now expected to develop into the peak of the 2024 hurricane season later in August to October of this year. In a La Niña setup the upper level winds over the Atlantic ocean are reduced. These winds typically shear or rip apart tropical systems but their absences means a better environment for hurricanes to develop.
In an average Atlantic hurricane season there are 14 named storms including 7 hurricanes. Due to exceptional ocean heat and an expected La Niña, the University of Missouri forecast for this upcoming season is well above average with 26 named storms and 11 hurricanes forecast. Dr. Anthony Lupo at Mizzou is confident in an above-average season and also refers back to past years of forecasting for what to expect in 2024. Using an "analog" method of forecasting where the past environment is compared to the present, Dr. Lupo says some similar outcomes can be expected from similar setups. This year is currently reminiscent of the 1878, 1926, 1998, 2010, and 2020 hurricane seasons. Those years all featured active, deadly, and expensive hurricane seasons which only increases forecaster's confidence in what could play out for 2024.
