Insider Blog: How drought indicators change into the colder seasons

Dry conditions are here to stay as we continue further into fall with the latest end-of-year outlooks highlighting persisting, non-improving drought across the Midwest. Near-normal rainfall expected in the coming months will not be enough to catch up to the deficit from the summer though drought is not expected to worsen. Rain totals will become even more important in the colder months as the methods for classifying drought change with the seasons.

A big part of drought during summertime is due to soil moisture, which is necessary to sustain agriculture in the heat. As harvest comes into fall this is less of a concern, and atmospheric changes also lead to less water loss. Cooler temperatures and less sunlight in the fall allow plants to conserve more water, nullifying this part of the drought equation. But other pieces become more important with colder conditions.

Efficient rainfall can be harder to come by in the cooler seasons, and this can put a strain on water resources even without the heat. Focus shifts to streamflows and precipitation amounts during this time of year, as we strive to keep up with typical rainfall. Still, for the rest of the year ahead, only near-average rainfall is expected with little improvement to dry conditions.