Looking into the rest of January’s temperature forecast
Extreme cold has settled across the Midwest leading to wind chills dipping below zero degrees Tuesday night. The ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team has issued a Weather Alert Day lasting through Thursday morning at 7 am as lows remain below ten degrees. Many people who have had to push through these cooler conditions might be wondering, "How long will the cooler temperatures stay?" The answer is at least through the end of January.
The latest trends are looking cooler than average for much of the eastern half of the United States.
The cooling trend looks to extend to most of the United States towards Mid-January. The average high for this time of the year for Columbia Missouri sits at 39 degrees Fahrenheit meaning highs for the overal duration of this time period remain below this point.
The cooling trend looks to decrease across the nation by the end of the month with the exception of the Great Plains region southeast towards the east coast.
La Nina conditions are forecasted to occur into the second half of January, but most of this time period is under the influence of a disturbed Polar Vortex arching its way further south. This occurs do to weaker westerly winds allowing for the Polar Jet-Stream (White line dividing the orange from the blue colors on above map) to surge further south sending arctic air deeper into the mid-latitude portions of the United States.
La Nina conditions occur as sea surface temperatures cool into the Eastern Pacific Ocean at -0.5 degrees Celsius for an extended period of time.
This cooling has a direct impact on the Polar Jet-stream leading to near average or above average temperature trends on typical La Nina winter years In Central Missouri.
As we sift deeper into the winter months, weaker La Nina conditions look to become more in-line with the forecast as observed through the above three-month temperature outlook.
