How weather can influence duck populations

The 2024-2025 duck season kicks off November 2nd for the northern and middle zones of Missouri, and many hunters across the state will be eager to make their way in local marshes and rivers. It's important to pay close attention to duck population counts, as this resource must be protected under conservation practices to ensure the future generations of waterfowl. One major factor to determine healthy waterfowl population's is for adequate weather across breeding grounds in Canada and the Northern U.S.

This past spring, beneficial rain fell across much of the traditional breeding grounds leading to an overall increase in duck populations up 5% from last years survey.

One of the major highlights for 2024 waterfowl survey was the increase in one of the most sought after species in the waterfowling world, the mallard duck.

The mallard population saw an increase of 8% change from the 2023 population survey. This is a promising discovery as last years survey saw a major drop in mallard numbers from the previous 2023-2024 season down -18%.

The most promising species benefitting from this year's survey is the American Wigeon which saw an increase of 55% from the previous waterfowl population survey. Dr. Mike Brasher who is a Senior Biologist at Ducks Unlimited and co-host of the Ducks Unlimited Podcast mentions, "We don't think a population increases or decreases by 50% in a given year." Dr. Brasher mentions that birds could be accounted for this year that weren't seen in last years population survey, but nevertheless it is an exciting thing to see for the potential of the species.

On top of this exciting news of increases, there are some results that have resulted in decreases in species populations. One duck species many people in the Mississippi Flyway have paid attention to closely is the Northern Pintail. The population has gone down 11% since last year, with the long-term average down -49%. Missouri currently regulates the daily Northern Pintail harvest at one per day, but federal guidance for next years 2025-2026 season states the increase in a daily harvest of the Northern Pintail to three. This is result of a new model for understanding population dynamics which safely allows for the increase in the harvest limit without threatening the species population.

Tony Vandemore is a life-long waterfowl hunter and enthusiast that is the co-owner of the Habitat Flats Waterfowl Outfitter Network who owns and runs services and lodges ranging from Saskatchewan Canada down to Sumner Missouri and Miami Missouri. Tony mentions, "Weather dictates everything from a moist soil plan. I mean, at the of the start season, I've got plans in place as to what I want to do here. And you know, Mother Nature holds the final cards. She puts a flood on you. Now your delayed , your plan goes to plan B, Plan B goes plan C." Building a sustainable habitat for ducks relies heavily on crop and moist soil production along with water levels of these areas. Rainfall can both hurt or help this habitat depending on the time of the year. Drought can lead to poor quality of wetlands meaning less places for ducks to successfully feed and remain safe in. These management practices increases the likelihood of increases in harvest, and can also act as an important stop for migrating ducks to make their way south during the winter before returning north towards the spring to breed.

The start of the waterfowl season in Canada starts well ahead of Missouri's November start, meaning that what hunters report can be an early notice of what hunters can expect in terms of populations for hunters south in the United States. Tony Vandemore reports, " When I was up at our lodge in Saskatchewan in September, the number of ducks was unbelievable and the numbers of Wigeons I saw in Saskatchewan were phenomenal." This could indicate possible future hunter success south in the U.S. pending migration patterns caused by weather influences such as cooler temperatures and snow pack.

On successful hatch years for duck population counts, this could also mean a large increase in young birds. Young birds are typically harvested at higher rates because of their inexperience dealing with hunters making for potential higher harvest totals if other influences do not stand in the way such as extreme cold or extreme heat for extended time periods.

To find out more information on waterfowl research you can visit Ducks Unlimited at https://www.ducks.org/

To find out more about Habitat Flats and for booking future hunts you can visit https://www.habitatflats.com/