Weather Alert Day: Tracking potential for hail and damaging winds Thursday evening

THURSDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE:

Little has changed in the forecast for Thursday night, other than the fact that we now have some added clarity of where and when the best chances for storms will be. We'll have two primary rounds of storms. Our first window for sever weather will come with development in the south that is expected anytime after 3 p.m. The next round will be focused north of HWY 24 after 7 p.m.

BLOG:

An ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Alert Day has been issued for Thursday for the threat of storms with a potential for hail and damaging winds. 
SETUP:

A traditional low with associated warm and cold fronts will set up over the region Wednesday and Thursday, before the cold front clears the region overnight Thursday into Friday morning. This will bring ingredients for severe storms into the region that may support potential for hail and damaging winds.

TIMING:

Storms look to begin this evening along and ahead of an approaching cold front at any point from now. Timing is split into two region, south of Highway 50 and north of north of Highway 24. The secondary round begins after 7 pm. Eventually into the early overnight hours these storms merge together.

The questionable part of all of this is where storms develop, but the concern is that the environment will support severe weather develops.

This could be a near miss for many of us as well, where we find ourselves sandwiched in between the two separate rounds of storms. A scenario where storms develop south of mid-Missouri in the early afternoon, and then struggle to develop along the cold front amid some weaker lift, we could miss out on severe weather.

IMPACTS:

Our primary concern with Thursday's storms will be for hail and damaging wind, but there will be a slim chance for tornadoes that cannot be ruled out.