What a 5/5 risk means for portions of the Midwest

Things are shaping up for a very active severe weather day across portions of the Midwest this afternoon lasting throughout the overnight hours. Tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding are all possible with this system as it begins in western Kansas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma and moves east into Missouri closer to Tuesday morning.

There have already been multiple tornado warnings and several severe thunderstorm warnings caused by this storm, and more is yet to come as the strength increases across central Oklahoma and south-central Kansas.

The Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, Oklahoma is tasked with giving outlooks that highlight severe risk ahead of these incoming storms. For this event, a more uncommon 5/5 risk has been issued for Central Oklahoma and south-central Kansas. This is the highest threat level which should raise concerns for people living in the area for the production of strong tornadoes (EF-3 and greater).

The main two factors driving these increased threat levels is caused by increased energy and wind shear in the region as opposed to the lesser amounts expected to pull into Mid-Missouri during the passing of these storms.

Oklahoma is expected to see almost double our predicted values of energy known as CAPE ( Convective. Available. Potential. Energy).

The last time a 5/5 risk was issued for both Columbia and Jefferson City was on March 12, 2006. This day would lead to 17 total tornadoes which caused six fatalities, 49 injuries, and two EF-3 tornadoes.

Missouri typically sees the highest volume of tornado touchdowns during the month of May, so you'll want to make sure you stay weather aware. Especially for scenarios like tonight where these same storms can produce winds up to 70+ mph and spin-up tornadoes.