Weather Alert Day: Severe storms possible on Tuesday into Tuesday night
The Stormtrack Weather Team has issued a Weather Alert Day ahead of another round of severe storms on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night as a strong low pressure system sets up across the Plains. The setup is looking similar to the storm system we had last Friday, bringing the threat of large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds as instability and strong low level jet stream winds increase across the region.
Tuesday Morning Update: The latest Storm Prediction Center outlook has not changed much for mid-Missouri.
Questions still remain about whether or not storms develop at all this afternoon. Confidence is high that whatever storms do develop will be capable of strong tornadoes and large hail.
Monday Afternoon Update: The latest Storm Prediction Center outlook has upgraded southern Missouri to a 4/5 risk for severe storms Tuesday. Timing on the cold front with this system has also shifted later into Tuesday night, though severe storms are still possible.
SETUP
Tuesday looks eerily similar to late last week when we saw a severe weather outbreak in these same regions. Gusty southerly winds will push in heat and moisture Tuesday morning, though a low level cap on the atmosphere will likely reduce storm activity in the early part of the day.
If isolated storms manage to push through that cap of warm air Tuesday afternoon they could form supercells capable of large hail and tornadoes. A greater chance for storms comes with a strong cold front now set to arrive overnight Tuesday.
TIMING
If storms can develop through the warm layer, or "capping" inversion, there will be a threat of isolated severe storms bringing the threat of large hail and tornadoes from late afternoon through early evening. The most favorable location will be closer to the warm front that will be draped across southern Iowa and northern Missouri. A more likely scenario for widespread severe storms would be for storms to form into a line ahead of the cold front that moves in late Tuesday night, likely an hour or two before midnight across Mid-Missouri. The main concern would be damaging winds between 60-70 mph between about 11:00 p.m. and 5:00 a.m.
WHAT TO EXPECT
All severe risks are possible Tuesday thanks to a combination of moisture, high instability, and enhanced winds. Even non-thunderstorm winds are expected to be gusty, up to 40-45 mph through the day into Wednesday morning. A Wind Advisory is in effect for much of the area through early Wednesday.
Quarter to golf ball sized hail will be possible in afternoon storms, along with the possibility of tornadoes. Damaging winds in excess of 60 mph will be possible with the late evening line of storms along the cold front.
You can download the Stormtrack Weather App to receive alerts on severe weather and stay up to date. A weather radio is also a great idea with overnight storms possible, so they can wake you if storms approach. Have a severe weather plan in place before the event unfolds and tune in to updates on the forecast.
