Tracking widespread rain with cold air behind it
TODAY: Tuesday is shaping up to be a wet day with showers and thunderstorms already approaching from the west to start the day. Rain showers will track generally to the northeast as the overall line pushes from west to east through the day. There will generally be two rounds; first the showers and storms early this morning, and another round more closely tied to the front later this morning and afternoon. For those north of I-70, there will be less of a distinction between the two rounds, as most will perceive it as being rainy all day, whereas some to the south will see a break between rounds, likely for an hour or two around late morning, before more rain along the front pushes through. Expect to hear a few rumbles of thunder through the day, but no severe weather is expected. Heavy rain at times will be possible, with recent guidance suggesting we could see widespread totals of more than an inch with this system. Rain will exit on the back side of this system by 5-6 p.m. for those west of 63, and exiting mid-Missouri all together, by 8-9 p.m. Temperatures will climb into the low 50s at their warmest, before tapering off behind the rain.
TONIGHT: Temperatures won't plummet initially, as we don't immediately see a huge wind shift behind the rain. Winds will gradually turn more southwest and westerly through Wednesday, keeping temperatures mild. Expect a low in the upper 30s early Wednesday.
EXTENDED: The aforementioned mild air keeps Wednesday tolerable, with highs in the mid-to-upper 40s under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. Thursday, we will likely feel cold air infiltrate as we complete that wind shift to bring in more northwesterly air. This plus signs of a low deck of stratus clouds keep forecast highs in the low 40s and upper 30s. With clouds lingering, and cold air sticking around, expect highs in the 30s on Friday. If these clouds want to produce any precipitation, it would likely fall as a flurry or two. No wintry impacts are expected through the rest of the week. Saturday and Sunday remain dry and cold, with highs in the 30s. A system approaches early next week that is raising some eyebrows, but it's well too early to talk details, other than some wintry weather might be possible. With that said, so is rain.
