Weather Alert Day: Severe threat winding down this afternoon

SUNDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE

The blog has been updated to include new impact information, as well as a new Futuretrack and forecast video.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for most counties south of I-70 through 4:00 p.m. where storms could bring potentially damaging winds and hail.

SETUP

The upper-level pattern that brought record-breaking heat last week has broken down, clearing the way for disturbances to move into the region. The warmth and moisture are still lingering behind and will work to fuel storms by the end of the weekend. As a cold front sweeps in from the north early Sunday, this will fire off a round of potentially severe storms throughout the day.

TIMING

The cold front will arrive in northern Missouri before sunrise and push into our area by midmorning. Storms will impact northwestern portions of the state earlier in the day and spread through Mid-Missouri into the early afternoon.

Should the system arrive ahead of schedule, that would lessen the severe risk with fewer environmental factors coming together. Regardless, strong storms will be likely with this system.

IMPACTS

With this setup, damaging winds are the primary concern. Also, hail and a few tornadoes are possible, particularly for areas south of I-70. Wind gusts could be in excess of 60 mph with hail over an inch in diameter. While not the primary threat, a spin-up tornado is also possible. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded southern Missouri to a 3/5 risk while those to the far north are in the 1/5 category.

HOW TO PREPARE

As always, have multiple ways to receive weather information before this system arrives. Be sure to have a weather radio on hand and download the ABC 17 StormTrack Weather App to remain informed.

Stay tuned and we will keep you updated on air, web, social, and on the ABC17 StormTrack Weather App.