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Tracking storms this weekend, severe threat Sunday

TODAY: Showers and a few storms for the southern half of the area. Highs in the low 60s. Another round of storms will fire up tonight in northern Missouri and bring heavy rainfall and a threat for hail.

SUNDAY MORNING: More showers and storms to start, then isolated showers late morning. Chilly with a low in the mid 50s.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Severe storms are possible from 12-10 p.m. on Sunday as a cold front moves west to east through our area. All severe threats are on the table, with a few tornadoes possible throughout the afternoon. Damaging winds and hail are also possible, along with flooding in areas with persistent rain.

EXTENDED: A warm front slowly begins to inch in our direction for the weekend, keeping clouds around and bringing showers and a few thunderstorms to far southern Missouri during the day Saturday. As the boundary moves north Saturday night, steady rain and thunderstorms build in, bringing heavy rainfall to the northern sections of Mid-Missouri through Sunday morning. A big caveat in the forecast will be how far north that front can get on Sunday before the cold front starts advancing in from the west. If it slows down and keeps rain over us into the afternoon, we could end up not seeing much severe weather. The farther north the warm front gets, the higher our severe weather potential will be on Sunday. We'll have some dry time if the second scenario plays out to allow the atmosphere to warm up and destabilize further. This will provide fuel for strong thunderstorms to develop ahead of the cold front. A few of these initial storms will pose the threat of large hail and a tornado through late afternoon into early evening. The wind threat looks highest as storms develop right along the cold front into Sunday evening and progresses east. The severe weather threat looks to come to an end before 10PM, with cooler air by Monday. Highs to start off next week on Monday will only reach about 60 degrees behind the cold front. Another strong system develops across the northern Plains and moves in to the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing a chance for more showers and a few rumbles of thunder through Wednesday morning. Severe weather is not expected with that batch at this time for Mid-Missouri. A cooler airmass settles in as that system exits, leaving us in the low 60s for the rest of next week. Halloween is still looking dry for now!

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Nate Splater

Nate forecasts on the weekend edition of ABC 17 News This Morning on KMIZ and FOX 22, KQFX.

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