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Weather Alert Day: Tracking potential severe storms late tonight

The ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team has issued a Weather Alert Day for the potential of severe thunderstorms Sunday evening into very early Monday.

SETUP:

The big question in today's severe weather forecast will be how the morning storms to our north impact the possibility of more development later tonight. As storms clear out, the atmosphere is expected to recover, allowing the environment to recharge during the day thanks to another afternoon of heat and humidity. Storms are expected to form along and ahead of a cold front that has been situated to our north since late last week.

TIMING AND IMPACTS:

A few storms could develop by late afternoon, especially across far northern Missouri, with additional development along the front before sunset. Instability is highest along I-70 through late evening, and it will wane with time as we lose daytime heating. The most favorable location for severe storms will be along and north of I-70 through 12-2AM.

Storms will begin to form into a line north of Highway 24 and move in between 8-9PM for these areas. Storms progress south through the night, moving into the I-70 corridor between 10-11PM. As storms move south, they'll lose severity by the time the line reaches the Lake of the Ozarks and I-44 corridor before sunrise.

The biggest concern for Mid-Missouri with this line of storms will be flash flooding in areas that received between 2-4" of rain on Saturday night along and north of I-70, along with the threat of quarter to golf ball size hail, and 50-60 mph winds. The tornado threat will be low, but not zero with this system.

The threat for severe weather comes to an end before sunrise, but expect another round of rain across the southern half of the area through Monday afternoon with much cooler air on the way for the first few days of the week.

Make sure you have a way to receive warnings late tonight. The ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather App is a great free resource that can be downloaded in the App Store or Google Play store, with alerts for your location sent right to your phone or device.

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Jessica Hafner

Jessica Hafner returned to ABC 17 News as chief meteorologist in 2019 after working here under Sharon Ray from 2014 to 2016.

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