New intelligence suggests ‘Havana Syndrome’ possibly caused by foreign weapon; overall assessment remains ‘very unlikely’
By Katie Bo Lillis and Alex Marquardt, CNN
(CNN) — New intelligence has led two US intelligence agencies to conclude that it’s possible a small number of mysterious health ailments colloquially termed as Havana Syndrome impacting spies, soldiers and diplomats around the world may have been caused by a “novel weapon” wielded by a foreign actor, according to intelligence officials and a new unclassified summary report released on Friday.
However, the two agencies are in the minority and the broader intelligence community assessment remains that it is very unlikely that the symptoms were caused by a foreign actor, according to the unclassified report summary issued Friday — even as an official with the Office of the Director of National Intelligence emphasized that analysts cannot “rule out” the possibility in some small number of cases.
The subtle, technocratic shift in the assessment over the cause of Havana Syndrome has reignited a bitter debate that has split US officials, Capitol Hill and victims over the likelihood that the bizarre injuries were caused by a weapon or a host of disparate, natural causes.
Sometime in the last two years, the US received new intelligence that indicated a foreign nation’s directed energy research programs had been “making progress,” according to the official. That led one unnamed intelligence agency to assess that there was a “roughly even chance” that a foreign country has used some kind of novel weapon against a small group of victims, causing the symptoms that the government officially calls “anomalous health incidents” — headaches, vertigo and even, in some cases, signs of traumatic brain injury.
A second intelligence agency assessed a “roughly even” chance that a foreign actor possessed such a weapon but is unlikely to have deployed it against US personnel. According to two former intelligence officials, one of those agencies is the National Security Agency.
But both judgments were made with low confidence, according to the ODNI official. And critically, possessing a capability is not the same as proof that it has been used.
“All IC components agree that years of IC collection, targeting and analytic efforts have not surfaced compelling intelligence reporting that ties a foreign actor to any specific event reported as a possible (anomalous health incident),” the official said Friday.
In fact, the official said, some evidence directly contradicts the notion that a foreign government was involved. Intelligence collection “indicates foreign adversaries who the IC identifies as credible in organizations that would know either expressing surprise or denying their involvement privately,” the official said.
The White House emphasized that research to determine the causes of the incidents is ongoing, and briefings are planned with the incoming Trump administration so that they continue the work.
“We have to approach this with humility. We don’t have all of the answers, and it’s going to require interdisciplinary work, bringing in expertise from inside and outside of the government to understand what may have caused this,” a senior administration official said.
But the latest findings have nevertheless incensed victims, many of whom believe strongly that intelligence exists offering black-and-white evidence that Russia is behind their symptoms, some of which have been severe enough to force retirement. It has also put the intelligence community at odds with the Republican-led House Intelligence Committee, which last month issued a report that found it was “increasingly likely” that a foreign adversary was behind the episodes.
“This see-no-evil ridiculous assessment not only covers for Russia but proves the point of the recent House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (HPSCI) report,” said Mark Lenzi, a State Department officer who was medically evacuated from China in 2018 and later diagnosed with traumatic brain injury.
Another victim referred to the intelligence community’s unwillingness to blame foreign adversaries as “gaslighting.”
Anger has been building
For more than a year, anger has been building in the community of victims at what some see as a deliberate unwillingness at the CIA, which has led investigatory efforts, to accurately assess the likelihood that another nation — Russia — was using some kind of directed energy weapon to cause the injuries.
The fundamental disagreement over the evidence of Russia’s involvement has led to deep disillusionment, distrust and increasingly pitched friction between the victims of Havana syndrome and the government agencies charged with investigating it.
And because most of the evidence for either side of the ledger is classified, the debate has become a frustrating case of he said, she said.
On Friday, officials emphasized that the intelligence community is now supporting lab work on whether radio frequencies can cause “bioeffects” in line with what victims have reported. The latest findings from limited studies have shown mixed results, while previously most results had shown no effects, officials said.
A panel of experts assembled by the intelligence community that studied a smaller set of incidents previously found that the symptoms might be explained by “pulsed electromagnetic or acoustic energy,” as opposed to environmental or medical conditions.
“There was unanimous judgment by the panel that the most plausible explanation for a subset of cases was exposure to directed energy,” a second senior administration official said.
But complicating matters for victims and analysts is the fact that not all of those reporting AHIs have the same set of symptoms — and the vast majority of cases have been explained by other causes, officials have previously said.
Intelligence and administration officials have been at pains to emphasize that even as they have not assessed Russia is behind the injuries, they do not doubt that the injuries are real and deserving of government compensation.
In November, key officials at the National Security Council invited a group of six victims to attend a meeting in the Situation Room. A participant, a former US intelligence official, told CNN the meeting was called to discuss how the Biden administration should advise the incoming Trump team to proceed with the ongoing investigative efforts to get to the bottom of the cause or causes behind the injuries.
“These are our colleagues who have been affected, sometimes with debilitating injuries. And we have made it abundantly clear that we believe that they have faced serious harm, and that they are that they deserve the support and care that they need,” the first senior administration official said.
The ODNI official fiercely pushed back on the notion that the intelligence community was pulling punches in its assessment.
“To me, integrity is doing what’s right and true even in the face of impossible pressures,” the official said, noting that many of those reporting anomalous health incidents, or AHIs, are friends and colleagues of the analysts trying to assess what happened to them.
“We follow the facts wherever they lead, and many of us were surprised by the results,” the official said. “We do not question the experience of our colleagues. Our analysis is focused only on considering foreign responsibility, and the intelligence does not link a foreign actor to these events. Indeed, it points away from their involvement. And analytic integrity is saying just that.”
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