Weather Alert Day: Tracking potential for more severe storms Sunday

SETUP:

An upper level disturbance digs into the Upper Plains on Sunday, with its associated low pressure and fronts sweeping through the Midwest today.

If a warm front can make it into Mid-Missouri, our severe chances will increase heavy-handedly. South of the warm front will be an environment rich in storm energy and shear. These ingredients will be enough for us to consider the possibility of tornadoes, along with hail and strong winds.

In the event that this warm front stays to our south, we will still see widespread rainfall though our severe threat will be much lower.

TIMING:

The warm front currently looks to push through Mid-MO early Sunday, with isolated severe winds possible with storms along its leading edge. Showers and storms continue through midafternoon before a dry period late in the day. This dry time will be a big factor in severe development in the evening, as the atmosphere will need to recover ahead of a cold front. If this plays out, storms tonight will hold a higher risk of all severe hazards, including tornadoes if the warm front is north of our area.

IMPACTS:

Impacts largely depend on how this system plays out, as mentioned above. However, threats will include all types of severe weather including hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. We also cannot rule out flash flooding as this has been a persistent feature with heavy rain-producing storms lately given somewhat saturated grounds.