Israel is worried that Trump will strike a ‘bad deal’ with Iran, leaving war objectives unmet

By Tal Shalev, CNN

(CNN) — Israel is concerned that US President Donald Trump may strike an agreement with Iran before addressing some of the key issues that drove the two countries to launch the war in the first place, multiple Israeli sources have told CNN.

A deal that leaves Tehran’s nuclear program partially intact while bypassing issues such as ballistic missiles and support for regional proxies would lead to Israel viewing the war as incomplete, the sources said.

“The primary concern is that Trump will grow tired of talks and cut a deal – any deal – with last-minute concessions,” one Israeli source said. While US officials have reassured Israel that the issue of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium will be addressed, the source said the apparent exclusion of ballistic missiles and Tehran’s proxy network from the talks “is a big deal.”

Iran fired over 1,000 ballistic missiles at Israel and Gulf Arab states during the war, as well as barrages of drones.

A partial deal that fails to address some of Iran’s key capabilities while easing economic pressure on the country could also stabilize the regime and provide it with an influx of cash, the officials said. The concerns highlight a gap between Trump, who appears reluctant to resume the war, and Netanyahu, who fears it will end without achieving all of its initial aims.

A White House spokeswoman said that Iran “knows full well their current reality is not sustainable,” insisting that Trump “holds all the cards” in negotiations.

“Their ballistic missiles are destroyed, their production facilities are dismantled, their navy is sunk, and their proxies are weakened,” Olivia Wales said in a statement to CNN. “Now, they are being strangled economically by Operation Economic Fury and losing $500 million per day thanks to the United States Military’s successful blockade of Iranian ports.”

An agreement between the US and Iran to end the war is far from certain, with significant gaps remaining in the two sides’ positions on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and the future of Tehran’s nuclear program, and Israel is preparing for the possibility that the fighting resumes. But the Trump administration has still pushed for a diplomatic path forward, seemingly unwilling to restart a conflict that has sent gas prices in the US soaring.

Narrowing goals

Early in the war, Trump suggested the US wanted to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile program, end its support for regional proxies, and shut down its nuclear facilities so that it can never develop a bomb. But 10 weeks in, negotiations have focused on uranium – specifically its enrichment to weapons-grade levels – and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

The narrowing of goals has been visible in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s own public statements. In a February speech in Jerusalem, ahead of the Iran war, he laid out five conditions for an acceptable deal: removal of all enriched uranium, dismantling of enrichment capabilities, addressing ballistic missiles, dismantling Iran’s regional proxy network, and robust nuclear inspections.

By last week, in a video address before a meeting of the Israeli Security Cabinet, he narrowed that list to one. “The most important objective is the removal of enriched material from Iran – all of the enriched material – and the dismantling of Iran’s enrichment capabilities,” he said, with no mention of ballistic missiles or support for proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon or Hamas in Gaza.

One source familiar with the discussions said that Israel understands the missiles and the proxies “are probably off the table,” as they do not appear to be included in early diplomatic drafts, and that is why Netanyahu is prioritizing uranium as the most immediate threat.

The prime minister relies on his direct communications with Trump, one of the Israeli sources said, as he does not fully trust Trump envoy Steve Witkoff and the president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, who have been leading negotiations with Iran. Netanyahu has been piecing together backchannel diplomacy with Iran through intelligence gathered from Pakistan, Qatar and Iran.

“There is real concern that Trump will reach a bad deal. Israel is trying to influence it as much as it can,” another Israeli official told CNN. But Netanyahu is cautious of how much pressure to exert, wary of being perceived as leading Trump back to war.

The White House told CNN that Witkoff and Kushner have “the total confidence” of Trump, pointing to what it described as a “record of successes,” including ending the war in Gaza.

Israeli officials fear that lifting economic pressure – even partially – could stabilize the Iranian regime at a moment of weakness. Netanyahu’s former national security adviser, Meir Ben Shabbat, wrote over the weekend in Israeli newspaper Makor Rishon that any agreement must avoid allowing the regime to recover, pointing instead to Trump’s recent remark that “perhaps we are better off with no deal at all” as a preferable outcome to an agreement that doesn’t meet Israel’s objectives.

The Israeli security establishment is specifically concerned about an interim deal that would extend the ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and ease economic pressure on Iran without touching the nuclear file altogether.

Iran has insisted that a preliminary agreement cover only sanctions relief and the strait, with the nuclear matter being relegated to later stages.

‘We will be happy if there will be no deal’

A senior Israeli official told CNN that Israel remains on high alert for a breakdown in talks. “Our hand is on the pulse. We will be happy if there will be no deal, we will be happy if the siege on Hormuz continues, and we will be happy if Iran gets a few more strikes,” he said, acknowledging the decision ultimately lies with Trump. Escalation, he noted, is a realistic scenario “if the Iranians continue to play and drag negotiations.”

Another source familiar with the discussions said the US and Israel have continued to coordinate on potential military plans in Iran, including strikes on energy facilities and infrastructure as well as targeted killings of Iranian leadership, should talks fail.

The chair of the Israeli parliament’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Boaz Bismuth, reflected the prevailing view in a tweet following a classified briefing with senior military leaders.

“It’s either negotiations or a boom,” he posted on Sunday.

An Israeli source told CNN that the idea of a sunset clause has been floated in negotiations – a provision that would allow some restrictions to expire after a set number of years. That expiration would allow Iran to resume some nuclear activities, as in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal negotiated under President Barack Obama. Both Netanyahu and Trump repeatedly criticized that deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and Israel is wary that the current negotiations framework might have similar elements.

The source said Israel is pushing to insert two clauses that could distinguish it from the JCPOA: a full prohibition on enrichment during the sunset period, and the dismantling of Iran’s underground Fordow facility and the Pickaxe Mountain site, both of which are highly fortified underground sites in which Iran is believed to be advancing its nuclear capabilities.

A senior Israeli military official told reporters last month that if the war ends without Iran’s enriched uranium being extracted, it will be considered a failure.

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