Political science professor says Saturday’s assassination attempt likely wont change how Americans vote

COLUMBIA, Mo. (KMIZ)

An assassination attempt at a Saturday rally in Pennsylvania for former President Trump that left Trump injured after a bullet grazed his ear likely won't have a major change in the November election, a political professor says.

The attack left an attendee dead and two more injured. The shooter was killed on-site after a Secret Service sniper returned fired at the gunman.

Charles Zug -- an assistant political professor of political science at the University of Missouri -- said he, like many in America, and across the world found the attempt surprising.

"Because these kinds of things can have really destabilizing effects in the best of times but we're not in the best of times," Zug said. "There's a lot of sort of unprecedented stuff going on in terms of how the parties are interacting and you just you start introducing more contingencies and uncertainties like this, it's very concerning."

Zug said he doesn't foresee many uncommitted voters swinging toward Trump in November's election.

However, he said he is inclined to believe it could help Trump some. Zug said this is in part due to Biden's performance in late June at the presidential debate, and some of his media appearances where he struggles to speak.

Shortly after Trump was shot at, he was seen pumping his fist in the ear, as blood trickled down the side of his face. Zug said in contrast to Biden, this could help Trump, but wont change much because many swing states have already began leaning toward Trump after the June debate.

"The Republican Party is really going to amplify that," Zug said. "But in terms of electoral consequences, I don't think it's going to change much...this might amplify that a little bit but I think you've probably seen the most gains you would have seen to begin with here."

In a statement sent to ABC 17 News via text message, co-director of the Political Communication Institute Benjamin Warner said he can't speak with confidence on what effect it will have. However, Warner said he believes it could help Trump.

"Honestly, I suspect it's too early for anyone to speak with much confidence on that. I don't know, but I do expect at least a brief boost in support for Trump and it would not surprise me if the boost was enduring," the statement reads. "Given that he was already winning, this seems likely to solidify his lead."

There have been multiple attempted assassinations against U.S. presidents.

In 1831, Richard Lawrence attempted to assassinate Andrew Jackson, but the pistol misfired. In 1912, Theodore Roosevelt was shot in the chest, but it was slowed by contents in his pocket. In 1981, Ronald Reagan was shot by John Hinckley Jr.

Zug said in Reagan's case, he gained a boost in support after surviving the attempted assassination. He said it's hard to tell if this will be the same case in the 2024 election.

"The assassination attempt you know did help him, gave him (Reagan) a kind of boost...he responded graciously and magnanimously I think he said something like lets pray for Hinckley," Zug said. "Reagan's reaction was was both sort of a unifying message and had the effect of helping his popularity."

After Saturday, president Biden announced he planned to pull down his television ads and pause all outbound communications.

Zug said it's hard to know for certain whether this will hinder Biden's chances of winning the election. He said any change that would occur would likely be minimal because the number of voters whose votes are being competed for is small.

Zug also noted pausing a campaign can sometimes have an opposite effect, in the sense that it can raise the respectability of the president.

"It can make you seem above politics, which in an era where people are very suspicious of politics, that can be a good thing, right?"Zug said. "It can make you seem like you're beyond just the ordinary fray of partisan discord."