Group revises Missouri COVID-19 prediction, says state past peak for deaths
COLUMBIA, Mo. (KMIZ)
A widely-cited COVID-19 prediction model believes Missouri is past the peak for daily deaths.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation said that Missouri's peak for daily deaths occurred April 14. While the IHME said it projected 26 deaths that day, the Department of Health and Senior Services reported 19 deaths statewide.
The IHME released new details Friday on why it revised many states' projections. The models took into account two new social distancing measures - mass gathering restrictions and initial business closures. Missouri instituted both in mid-March. The group also made several revisions to the way it calculates its daily death prediction in states.
The revisions led the IHME to predict a steep drop in total deaths from COVID-19's first wave in Missouri. The IHME now predicts 362 deaths by August 4, down from the 1,731 deaths it reported earlier this week.
State leaders have said they are "cautiously optimistic" about the health of the state. The rate of new infections in Missouri has dropped in the last eight days. New cases made up about 7 percent of all cases on April 9, but ended the week with new reported cases as 3 percent of the total.
A slowing rate will play a crucial role in the state's decision whether or not to end the "stay-at-home" order on May 4. DHSS director Dr. Randall Williams said despite this, Missourians should not abandon social distancing rules experts believe will slow the spread.
"It would be a huge mistake to look at that and take your foot off the gas," Williams said. "If we're going to get to the daylight that May 4 represents, we have to keep doing what we're doing, or it's all for naught."
The IHME also rolled out recommendations for when states should roll back social distancing policies. For Missouri, the group believes June 1 is an appropriate date. The IHME based the dates on the state having one prevalent case out of 1,000,000 people.
