TUESDAY NIGHT UPDATE (10:30 PM)
Showers and thunderstorms have pushed east into Illinois tonight, with much of the severe weather impacting western Illinois and metro east St. Louis after midnight.
The main impact overnight will be strong to damaging winds not associated with thunderstorms due to this very powerful system moving across the Midwest. Winds will increase to 30-35 mph with gusts between 50-60 mph overnight into Wednesday morning. This could cause scattered power outages and make north-south travel very difficult into midday Wednesday. Make sure to secure or bring in any outside decorations or furniture this evening so it doesn't get damaged or blown away. Winds will die down by early Wednesday evening, and it will be dry for Thanksgiving travel.
November has been an extremely active month of weather: Tuesday will bring us a round of severe storms.
STORM SETUP (7:00am update)
A powerful cyclone will develop downstream of the Rockies Tuesday morning. A strong warm front will lift northward across mid-Missouri through the morning hours. Strong, southerly flow will bring in moisture which will clash with very strong wind shear aloft.
These types of setups don't need as much warm, moist air to work with. They usually feed off of strong winds high up in the atmosphere. Models are indicating wind speeds up to 90 mph ~4,000ft aloft which will be plenty fast enough to sustain fast-moving, supercell storms.
These high winds aloft will help these storms to produce all modes of severe weather including damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes. Storms will move very quickly, upwards of 50-60 mph, retaining strength after the sun sets.
THREATS (7:00am update)
TIMING (7:00am update)
Fast moving storms in the dark can obviously create major issues, you'll need to pay attention to forecasts and download our weather app so you know if a warning is issued for your area.
The main time-frame for these storms will start as early as 5pm for our western counties, likely moving out of the viewing area by 9pm.
FOLLOWING THE STORMS (1:15pm update)
The Weather Alert Day will continue overnight as damaging non-thunderstorm winds will blast across mid-Missouri through Wednesday morning. Falling tree limbs and power outages are possible. A high wind warning for 50-60 mph winds is in effect until early Wednesday afternoon.
You'll also want to secure any lawn ornaments/decorations/garbage cans as they may be lofted by the strong winds.