Experts say next major flood is inevitable; here’s how prepared we are

It’s been 25 years since the Great Flood of 1993 devastated the Midwest along the Missouri and Mississippi rivers, causing $15 billion in damage.

A 1996 report from the Missouri Department of Natural Resources highlighted the devastation Missouri and eight other states faced from April to October of 1993: “Man-made structures can be repaired or replaced, however, the personal hardships of the people affected will remain for years.”

Scars from the great flood can still be seen in the form of vacant buildings and desolate cities. They serve as a reminder that Mother Nature can be quite destructive and remind us of the importance of revisiting historic events and improve upon mistakes made.

WHAT CAUSED THE FLOOD:

An unusually large snow melt and wet spring in 1993 led to a chain reaction that sent the Mississippi and Missouri rivers to their highest recorded levels ever.

Anthony Lupo, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Missouri, said the amount of rain that fell over a widespread area, following a previous year that was already wet, was what made the flood so unusual. “You almost had a perfect storm of events that created the flood of ’93,” Lupo said.

In addition to the consistent raining, Lupo said the jet stream was so far south, which was unusual during this time of the year. “In the summertime, usually the jet is going to reside in Southern Canada during the summer season,” Lupo said. “For this season, it resided across the United States in such a away that it was picking up moisture from the Southeast Pacific as well as the Gulf of Mexico, and that added an extra dimension to our precipitation.”

David Hammer, a professor emeritus from the University of Missouri, said in addition to the unusual weather pattern, the way humans cultivated and changed the landscape ultimately led to the flooding event.

“The Missouri River prior to the mid-1920s was a combination of what we call a meandering and braided system,” Hammer said. “It had multiple channels and sometimes another six out of 10 or so years, most of the flood plain had water on it during the spring.” He said human interaction with rivers led to more widespread flooding.

“When you squish the river, narrow the channel down to a single channel and levee it, you’re confining all that water up and down the river system,” Hammer said.

According to Hammer, once the river is blocked from flooding, the flood plains are no longer hydrologically connected to the river. This is what is largely seen today as flood plains continue to be developed.

LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE FLOOD:

The flood of 1993 taught us the power of Mother Nature. It also highlighted the dangers of living in the flood plains, along with exposing flaws in many levees and flood preparedness plans. The most important aspect the flood taught was the necessity of being prepared when another flood sends rivers to new heights.

According to information from the National Weather Service, the Mississippi River was discharging enough water to fill Busch Stadium in just 69 seconds at its peak flow. It’s this type of unprecedented flooding that left parts of the Midwest underwater for 200 days. It crippled many cities and caused the local and federal governments to react.

Cedar City was one such city, as it was once home to nearly 200 houses, businesses and churches. It was a thriving community in northern Jefferson City, but the flood of ’93 caused catastrophic damage, and it prompted Jefferson City to receive more than $1 million in federal funding to use in a voluntary buyback program. That land is now used for both agricultural and recreational purposes.

“In many places where the land had been extremely damaged by the flood, (the Missouri Department of Conservation) bought the land and didn’t build a levee,” Hammer said. “So, if we have a flood like this again, there will be places where the river can actually go back into the normal flood plain, which will relieve some of the pressure.”

This land, according to Hammer, now totals a couple 100,000 acres, along the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers.

Some cities lying on the flood plain chose to elevate and enhance their levees instead of relocate their city. Chesterfield Bottoms is one such area, a location that was nearly 10 feet under water at the peak of the ’93 flooding.

“I was chagrined right after the flood to see Chesterfield being rapidly converted into six or seven malls,” Hammer said. “That was a place that flooded in ’93, and some of the conditions that caused levee failure still exists there today.”

He said the buyback program was a “beautiful collaborative effort” of governmental agencies in Missouri, and the greatest benefit of it was the creating of habitat and recreational areas in the flood plains.

While flooding will always cause some type of damage, the buyback program, new communication tools and regulations will ultimately lessen the severity of the next major flood.

“Zoning regulations, building and flood plains (are) very important to prevent the loss of property,” Boone County OEM Deputy Director Tom Hurley said. “It’s first predicative on keeping people out of the flood plain, ensuring the levees are supported and meet the standards that are necessary, which is what the levee district’s role is, and, of course, we need frequent communications with our partner agencies.”

Levees have become a huge importance, as the desire to live next to river basins continues to grow. This is a growing problem as cities continue to shut the river off from flooding naturally, which is why there must be a change in how future flood threats are perceived as well as communication efforts and funding to research.

“In 1993, it would have cost a billion dollars to have a laptop on scene uploading real-time data,” Hurley said. “Now, we can do it in virtually every vehicle that’s out there on front line field apparatus.”

“The flood of 1993, like a lot of disasters, is often the catalyst for bringing in more money, more equipment and helping us with the learning curve on how the atmosphere behaves.” Lupo said. “Unfortunately, sometimes it takes that, but we did benefit immensely from the increase in flooding.”

That money has since been used to increase communication, both at the state and federal level, improve weather models and create better flood monitoring systems.

“The biggest challenge is rising water, obviously, and what that brings with it,” Hurley said. “We want to prevent the loss of life, which with advanced warning, we do a fairly good job of that. The other biggest one is the loss of property.”

Lupo said the one biggest thing we can take away from the flood is to respect Mother Nature.

“Nature is very powerful, and all that we can do is adapt to it and work with the conditions and not try to oppose them,” he said. “We can continue to improve our infrastructures to handle larger events, we can build differently in places that are prone to floods, so there’s a lot we can do.”

WILL A FLOOD LIKE 1993 HAPPEN AGAIN?

At its core, the Mississippi and Missouri River Basin were doing what comes naturally in a flood, but with flood plains being converted into neighborhoods, farms and infrastructure, the river system was narrowed, causing the volume of the flood of 1993 to catch many by surprise.

Experts agree: It’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when the next flood will occur.

“If you look at the past as an indication of the future, then yes the flood of 1993 will happen again,” Lupo said. “It’s just a matter of time.”

So then the question becomes not will a flood like 1993 happen again, but are we prepared for the next flood?

According to Hurley, we are as prepared as we can be, but one can never really prepare for a flood of that magnitude.

“We are never really prepared for a type of event like 1993,” Hurley said. “We are prepared as well as we can be locally, both in communication with trusted partners and communication with the public.”

And for many, being prepared means we need to start from the ground up when it comes to preparing for a flood that will send rivers to new heights.

“We need to modernize our infrastructure to be able to handle such things should it get any worse,” Lupo said.