Lower snow and ice amounts forecasted for Mid-Missouri

A winter weather advisory is in effect for parts of Mid-Missouri ahead of another round of snow and ice set to track through the region. While initial amounts had most of Mid-Missouri seeing anywhere from one to two inches of snow, recent trends in weather data show lower snowfall totals. A more northern shift in the upper level disturbance, not only takes the greatest snowfall potential with it but will leave some of Mid-Missouri seeing a trace if any.

Setup:

A deepening trough across the rocky mountains will shift our midlevel flow out of the southwest. This southwest flow will interact with a disturbance tracking through the Midwest and shift it more north. This will leave the greatest snowfall bands well out of Mid-Missouri, as most of the energy shifts north. In addition to this, a warm front located across the Deep South will begin to slowly lift into Central LA. This warm front with plenty of moisture ahead of it will ride atop the cold air currently in place across Arkansas and southern Mid-Missouri, which will lead to a threat for freezing rain. Both events wouldn’t spell much in the way of snow for Mid-Missouri, but the formation of a midlevel front across northern portions of Mid-Missouri could bring a decent shot at seeing some accumulating snow in Macon and Chariton counties.

Hazards:

With the greatest forcing and lift both north and south of Mid-Missouri, high snowfall accumulations aren’t very likely. However, as the upper level trough tracks to the east and through Mid-Missouri most areas should begin to see some light snow falling, with the potential for freezing rain.

-Areas along and north of Highway 24, where the southern extend up the greatest forcing will exist could see up to 2 inches of snow.

– Central portions of Mid-Missouri won’t likely see much until the upper level trough tracks through the region and by then only a trace to just shy of an inch will be possible across the region.

– Areas near I-44 will see the potential for up to an inch of snow, with a glaze of ice. This will make traveling hazardous on untreated roads.

Impacts:

With the main arteries and roads already pretreated, significant travel conditions aren’t expected. However, any slick spots that do develop will create hazardous conditions. With all snow expected along and north of Highway 24, be mindful to take it slow. While roads will be treated, the potential for brief moderate snow could limit your visibility. Central portions of Mid-Missouri won’t see much until the late evening hours if any. Main impacts will be on the side roads and roads that are left untreated, as a wintry mix tracks through. The farther south you travel there will be an increased chance for ice accumulation, as freezing drizzle/rain builds into the region. The ice combined with the chance for snow will create very slick conditions. It’s important to remember that at any time you see winter precipitation falling that you slow down. Ice doesn’t care if you have a 4WD or the safest vehicle, it will still be very slick.

Timing:

Current trends suggests that the system is slowing down. Most locations will stay precipitation free until late this evening when the greatest upper level support will be available. Brief bursts of snow are possible for northern parts of Mid-Missouri into the late afternoon and early evening hours, as bands of snow tracking out of Kansas and Nebraska track through the region.

– Areas along and north of Highway 24 are already seeing snow which will last into the night.

– Central Mid-Missouri won’t see much, until the upper level trough begins to track through Mid-Missouri. The timing of this will likely be after 7 PM and last through at least midnight.

– Southern Mid-Missouri can expect to see the onset of freezing drizzle and eventually snow after 6 PM, as the northern extent of a wave tracks into the region.

Most if not all of Mid-Missouri will see an end to the winter precipitation as we head beyond two to three AM. While the morning commute will be dry, icy and slick spots are likely with temperatures expected to be in the teens.

Remember to stay safe if you are going to be on the roadways and make sure to always stay up to date with the latest information from the ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team. You can also follow us online @ABC17Stormtrack.