Marginal risk of storms Labor Day with first taste of fall to follow

There’s no better way to kick off the unofficial end to summer than with beautiful weather. Here in Mid-Missouri that’s what we can expect to see as we head through Labor Day, with temperatures in the lower 90s and heat indices approaching the mid 90s.

While a majority of the day will be warm and windy, as winds remain out of the southwest at up to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph, a strong cold front will usher in the first true taste of fall on the tail end of Labor Day.

For quite some time we’ve had persistent north or northeasterly winds, which have made it feel comfortable outside. However, with the latest trend of southerly winds we’ve seen an increase of moisture in Mid-Missouri. It’s this moisture that will interact with the cold front to provide for some scattered showers and storms as we head from Monday night into Tuesday morning.

A marginal risk of severe weather is in place for parts of Mid-Missouri, with the greatest threats being winds up to 50 mph and quarter-sized hail. The main reason this marginal risk is in place is due to the severe parameters in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

Wind shear (difference in wind speed/direction with height), which is a good component for storms to become organized, is on the weak side, but noticeable enough that we could see one or two severe thunderstorm warnings Monday night into Tuesday morning. That in association with the fuel (energy) in the atmosphere is what will drive any severe warnings we do see.

Storms look to fire as we head beyond 6 PM near Interstate 70 and then gradually become numerous as they track to the south. The initial line of storms will be the line that could pose the severe threat, but right now it’s looking very limited. As the storms track to the south, they will lose steam and the severe threat will diminish.

The big winner comes as we head into Tuesday, once the front fully clears Mid-Missouri. It’s here where we will see our first true taste of fall, as temperatures for the rest of the week will stay in the low to mid 70s, with overnight lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

If you are liking this trend, through at least the first two weeks of September, below average temperatures are expected. A building ridge from the west though will lead to a return of above average temperatures as we head through the rest of September. It’s fairly common to see two seasons battle it on in swing months. Eventually fall will win out and cooler weather will be here to stay for the next several months.

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