Rain and storms could impede on July 4th plans

The odds are against us, but unfortunately mother nature didn’t look at those odds when it comes to rainfall on July 4th.

Once again, Mid-Missouri will be faced with an active weather pattern, that could exacerbate localized flooding we saw the past few days.

Thanks to an upper level disturbance off the west coast, we’ll see several periods of rain as we head from Sunday evening into Wednesday. That disturbance in large part with the slow moving atmospheric winds during the summer, will give way to heavy rainfall and storms once more for Mid-Missouri for July 4th.

Don’t cancel your July 4th plans, but do have an alternate plan in case of storms. The greatest threat for storms looks to be south of I-70 as we head through the day on Tuesday, with the threat increasing northward through the evening.

These storms come on the leading edge of a cold front that will once again track through Mid-Missouri and bring a marginal risk of severe weather with it.

Climatologically speaking, it’s very rare to see rain fall on July 4th.

Since record keeping began in 1890, there have only been 50 days (a 31% chance) where a trace or more of rain was recorded. The most recent was 2016, when .02″ of rainfall fell.

This year, it’s looking likely we could see upwards of an inch across parts of Mid-Missouri, which could impede on plans. This has only occurred 9 times since record keeping began. The most recent was 2009, when 4.17″ of rain fell.

This year, may the odds be ever in your favor, despite mother nature wanting to rain on our parade.

For the latest in the July 4th holiday weekend weather, stay up to date through our insider blog, or follow us on twitter @abc17stormtrack