Above average hurricane activity is predicted as we start the season
As June 1 kicks off the start of the Atlantic hurricane season, meteorologists at the the Climate Prediction Center have issued an outlook for this coming season. Hurricane season runs until November 30, and during this time forecasters are predicting above average hurricane activity.
Currently, there is a 45% chance of seeing an above average hurricane season, near-normal activity is predicted at a 35% chance, while a below average hurricane season holds a 20% chance.
As storms in the Atlantic reach wind speeds of 35 mph they are named in accordance to the World Meteorological Organization’s guidelines. Forecasters predict a 70% chance the Atlantic sees 11-17 named storms this season. Tropical storms are considered hurricanes when wind speeds reach 74 mph or greater. It is estimated that we will see 5-9 hurricanes develop in the Atlantic within the coming months. Finally, we can expect to see 2 to 4 major hurricanes, which meet the criteria of 111 mph or greater (category 3, 4, or 5).
On average, the Atlantic sees a total of 12 named storms, 6 becoming hurricanes, 3 of those major hurricanes. It is important to note that climate models are showing a fair amount of uncertainty in this year’s prediction, which is reflected in the close percentage values of the above average season (45%) to near normal season (35%).
This above average hurricane prediction comes from several varying factors, including, warmer surface temperatures across the Atlantic, a weak el Nino pattern, and weak wind shear values.
The 2016 season saw a very active pattern with 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. As we head into another potentially active hurricane season, forecasting is better than ever. The new GOES-16 satellite gives meteorologists higher resolution images to help improve their forecasting. New hurricane forecast models and communication methods are also being implemented for more accurate hurricane forecasting.
This hurricane outlook will be updated in August by NOAA, near the peak of hurricane season.
