More rain, strong storms for Wednesday and Thursday
Parts of Mid-Missouri are under a SLIGHT RISK for severe storms in anticipation of another storm system as we head through Wednesday and Thursday.
OVERVIEW:
An upper level low across the Desert Southwest will gradually begin to shift eastward through the night into Wednesday. This low will interact with a frontal boundary that is draped across Northern Missouri. To the south of the front warm and moist air will be in place. As the low tracks and interacts with the front, scattered thunderstorms will develop with the potential for some of them to be on the strong side.
TIMING:
Rain is set to arrive in Mid-Missouri beginning around 6 AM, for those along and west of Hwy 63. These showers and storms will primarily be driven by the lower level jet. As the storms move eastward and the lower level jet weakens, we’ll begin to see shower and storm activity taper off by 10-11 am for most of Mid-Missouri.
The main threat for severe weather arrives after 12 PM and last through the early evening hours, as the upper level low begins to interact with the cold front.
THREATS:
There are two possible days for seeing severe weather, Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday poses the greatest threat when it comes to storms, with Thursday not seeing much in the way of severe weather.
With plenty of shear available in the atmosphere, it’s likely that hail will be a primary threat with this system. Any hail that we do see, has the potential to be over one inch. Damaging winds are also another factor, as any organized activity that can transpire will bring about the threat for winds. With plenty of shear in place and the amount of instability that will be in the atmosphere, it’s likely that hail will be a big factor in the storms we see as we head through Wednesday afternoon. The tornado threat is low with this system, but it isn’t zero, so it’s important to remain aware.
As the system gradually works it’s way south and east, the severe threat will diminish. By Thursday afternoon, the greatest threat will lie along the I-44 corridor as the front continues to drag south.
Here’s a look at the current SPC Outlook for Thursday.
Be sure to stay tuned to ABC 17 News for any new updates regarding changes to the severe threat.
