Upgraded Risk of Severe Weather and Threats

It’s been a quiet start to Tuesday, but activity is expected to ramp up as we head into the late afternoon and evening hours. As this will be our first decent shot at severe weather in quite some time, now is a good time to remind how important it is to make sure you have some mode of receiving alerts. You can receive these alerts through our ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather App, a NOAA weather radio, or through your local television station.

SUMMARY:

A rather strong cold front is set to track through Mid-Missouri as night approaches. Ahead of this front, warm and muggy air is in place. A wind advisory is in effect for a good portion of Mid-Missouri through 6 PM this evening. With winds at the surface breezy and increasing with height, there’s a good amount of shear in place for any storms that form during the afternoon to quickly go severe.

This afternoon, overcast skies are holding strong across the region, but some clearing is occurring in southwest Missouri. We’ll have to watch for any storms to develop where the clearing takes place. No storms are forming as of this moment because a cap is in place in the atmosphere. (Think of a boiling pot of water with the lid on it, all of the energy is being held back). The mechanism for eroding that cap occurs most often when the sun comes out, and the convective temperature is reached. All in all, the sun coming out is a bad thing. However, if storms were to form this afternoon, they will quickly go severe. All of the right ingredients are in place for all modes of severe weather to occur with any rotating supercell.

The primary round of severe weather holds off until this evening, when the actual cold front tracks through Mid-Missouri. Due to the lack of directional shear with this line, tornadoes won’t be as great of a threat as they will this afternoon. The line of storms will be linear in nature with damaging winds, hail, and isolated embedded tornadoes possible. This line of storms will track from northwest to southeast through the evening, with the severe chance decreasing with it.

THREATS:

All modes of severe weather are possible with storms through the day and into the evening. While tornado threat is a huge concern, the greatest threat with tornadoes lies with any discrete cells that develop during the afternoon hours. There is the potential for long track tornadoes for areas along and east of Highway 54 in Mid-Missouri with any discrete supercells. Storms this afternoon are already firing and eroding the cap in the atmosphere. These storms will quickly become severe, with the greatest threats being hail, wind, and tornado. Any storms that do go severe quick have the chance of seeing hail in excess of 2″.

TIMING:

Round 1 of Storms:

2 until 6 pm there’s a chance for discrete supercells to form. Again any of these discrete supercells will quickly become severe. There will be a brief lull in activity with the storms through the evening hours, before the primary line moves through.

Round 2 of Storms:

Beginning around 7 pm, a line of storms will begin to approach Chariton, Macon, and Saline counties. This line will be accompanied with very strong storms. From 10 p.m. until 12 a.m. the line of storms will be approaching the Columbia area and stretching southwest. The storms are expected to exit Mid-Missouri through the overnight hours around 4 a.m. When the main line of storms sweeps through your area, the severe threat will diminish greatly.