Understanding severe outlooks as we head into severe weather season

In October of 2014, the Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, Oklahoma tweaked its severe weather outlook. These tweaks were a culmination of research, consumer feedback and advice from social scientists. Since its release, the severe weather outlook has provided better information to consumers on what to expect when severe weather strikes an area.

With the primary severe weather season for Mid-Missouri just days away, now is the time to get your severe weather plan in place, as well as come to fully understand the severe weather outlook.

Previous outlooks prior to 2014 only included “see text”, slight risk, moderate risk, or a high risk. After the outlook was tweaked, it now includes marginal risk, slight risk, enhanced risk, moderate risk and high risk, a better understanding of what to expect for storms.

If your community ever falls under one of these risks, after reading this article Mid-Missourians should know what to do.

Marginal risk (Denoted by green):

– A few storms can be close to severe criteria.

– Out of those storms, no damaging or life-threatening weather expected.

– Includes winds to 50 mph and hail under 1-inch.

– Most common type of severe weather outlook.

– Feb. 27, 2017 is the most recent marginal risk for Mid-Missouri.

Slight risk (Denoted by yellow):

– Conditions are favorable for some severe storms.

– Significant damage or life-threatening storms unlikely.

– One or two tornadoes, wind damage and large hail greater than 1-inch.

– Not as common as marginal, but still fairly common.

– Feb. 27, 2017 is the most recent slight risk for Mid-Missouri.

Enhanced risk (Denoted by tan)

– Numerous severe storms are possible.

– Of those severe storms, significant damage or life-threatening storms are possible.

– Usually issued within a slight risk for areas that have an increased chance of seeing severe storms.

– A few tornadoes, several reports of wind damage and large hail greater than 2-inches.

– Somewhat uncommon severe weather outlook.

– Feb. 27, 2017 is the most recent slight risk for Mid-Missouri.

Moderate risk (Denoted by red)

– Numerous severe storms are likely, with widespread storms.

– Of those severe storms, significant damage or life-threatening storms are possible.

– Long track tornadoes are possible

– Several tornadoes reported, widespread wind damage and large hail greater than 2-inches.

– Only issued if forecast confidence is very high for severe storms.

– Very uncommon severe weather outlook.

– June 3, 2014 is the most recent moderate risk for Mid-Missouri.

High risk (Denoted by pink)

– Ideal conditions for widespread storms and a severe weather outbreak.

– Significant damage and life-threatening storms likely.

– Forecast confidence is very high for severe weather outbreak.

– Long track tornadoes possible along with widespread tornado damage.

– Very rare severe weather outlook

– April 8, 1999 is the most recent high risk for Mid-Missouri.