Trump, Greitens win, markets react

The United States and global stock markets went on a roller-coaster ride following the election of Donald Trump as president.

The U.S. market opened down, but was back up by mid-morning. Marvin Overby, a professor of political science with the University of Missouri said a dip in the market is normal after an election.

“Especially when you have an election of a candidate the market is not all that fond of,” Overby said.

Overby said he felt the conventional wisdom of a Hillary Clinton victory was “a little overstated” and he always felt the race was going to be a close one.

“But the markets pegged [Clinton] as the winner and the markets just don’t like uncertainty,” said Overby. “So when you get this uncertain election night surprise, if you will, then you get this situation when the market bounces down.”

World market analysts agreed with the “unpredictability” factor of Trump.

“He’s unpredictable and markets don’t like unpredictability,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets.

According to reports, the projected market was expected to have dramatic sell-offs. Trump’s victory initially sent money into safe stocks like gold and currencies, but the global markets quickly recovered as the morning went on.

“We have a big, resilient economy,” Overby said. “Donald Trump is not an unknown to the economy, he has a business background. So I think nerves stabilized pretty quickly on that.”

Trump’s brash personality has been a stable of his campaign. But Overby said campaigning and governing are two different things and Trump will have to learn to tone it down while in office.

“As a campaigner, you can say things that don’t necessarily have direct repercussions,” Overby said. “You say those same things in the Oval Office and troops get mobilized and markets take a dive and you start getting red phones buzzing around the world.”

Overby said he believes Trump is capable of learning how to handle the international political audience, but he does have a steep learning curve.

“Essentially his first political job is president of the United States,” Overby said. “There’s a reason why we don’t elect people oftentimes whose first political job is president of the United States. There’s skills you learn in the state house, or the governor’s mansion, or in Congress that translate pretty well I think into the Oval Office.”

Trump isn’t the only winner from Tuesday night that had no prior political experience.

Missourians elected Eric Greitens to lead the state for the next four years. Greitens is a former Navy SEAL and has previously run a veterans charity. Greitens narrowly won the race over Democratic candidate Chris Koster by about 163,000 votes. Koster is currently serving at the Missouri Attorney General.

Both Trump and Greitens are also former Democrats turned Republicans.

“We’re in some way a sort of a new era, I think,” Overby said. “We’re certainly in a new era where a lot of the traditional expectations don’t seem to be in play any longer. The extent to which that is a function of the particular character and particular people here, I think that’s the interesting question. Are we in a different place because we have a Donald Trump and Eric Greitens? Or do we have a Donald Trump and Eric Greitens because we are in a different place?”

Overby said he felt Trump also benefited from running against Clinton in the general election. He said many people felt Clinton was an extension of President Obama and a “Clinton from the ’90s”.

“He just looked more dynamic on the stage than she did,” Overby said. “A lot of that was bravado. A lot of that has not much substance behind it. He certainly doesn’t know as much as she does. He’s not as experienced as she is. But he benefited from the fact that he was running against a candidate that had these flaws.”

Overby also talked about how the “career politicians,” who Trump and Greitens campaigned against, will now have to work with the newly elected president and governor, respectively.

“You heard it from Trump, you heard it from Greitens, ‘corrupt-career-politician’,” Overby said. “Many of them are Republicans and leaders in their own party. That’s going to cause certain tensions in both Washington and Jefferson City.”

“We’re going to see if this is a one-off; if this Trump-Greitens is a one-of-a-kind or if it’s the beginning of a new era,” said Overby.