Tropics Getting Active

A tropical wave a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands is tracking west/northwest at 15-20 mph. There is a 50% chance this wave will develop to a tropical depression within the next 48 hours, and a 60% chance in the next 5 days. As this low tracks westward, flash flooding, mud slides, and storm surge will be possible for Cuba, the Bahamas, and possibly Florida by the end of the weekend and early next week. Those vacationing to these areas in the next week will need to keep a close eye on the tropics.

This is a spaghetti plot. It plots several different forecast models that do the best job on picking up initial conditions. Where the lines are closer together is a “high confidence” forecast. Where the lines spread apart, this is a “low confidence.” As forecast models increase in time, general the confidence lowers and the lines diverge. This tells us, there is a good chance that heavy rainfall will impact the Bahamas, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and possibly the southern tip of Florida including the keys. For additional weather updates follow @ABC17Stormtrack on Twitter.