A strong area of low pressure is getting organized over the four corners region to our southwest Tuesday afternoon.
This area of low pressure will track just north of Missouri on Wednesday, bringing a cold front through Mid-Missouri Wednesday afternoon.
Winds will be gusty at times through early afternoon and through the evening as the front moves through. Expect gusts between 30-35 mph through Wednesday night.
Several ingredients are coming together for the possibility of severe weather on Wednesday afternoon. Strong wind shear through the lower and middle atmosphere coupled with a robust low level jet stream will make conditions favorable for damaging winds up to 65-70 mph and storms ahead of the front to rotate and possibly become tornadic. There is also the potential for large hail up to an inch in diameter with discrete cells that form ahead of the cold front.
Counties along and north of I-70 will have more instability available to fuel storms, making that area more favorable for storms to become strong or severe.
Thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and west of Highway 65 between 1-2 PM and race east into the Highway 63 corridor by 2-4 PM. Storms will be east of Highway 54 between 6-7 PM and we’ll be left dry and windy Wednesday night.
The criteria for severe thunderstorms include 1″ in diameter or greater hail, winds in excess of 58 mph, or a possible tornado.
Areas along and north of I-70 are in an enhanced risk from the Storm Prediction Center, while everywhere else in Mid-Missouri is in a slight risk.