2014-2015 ABC 17 Stormtrack Winter Forecast
Mid-Missouri has already been hit by a blast of arctic air earlier this season, which we think will occur
often this winter.
Some of the factors we took into account in making the winter forecast include the autumn snow pack in Siberia, developing a weak El Nino and a blocking weather pattern.
An extensive snow pack developed early in the fall months this year in Siberia and right now covers a large portion of the United States through Siberia. Extensive Siberian snow pack in autumn correlates with colder than normal winter temperatures.
In central North America it can also impact the phase of the arctic oscillation which refers to an opposing pattern of air pressure between the arctic and northern mid-latitudes. The extensive snowpack could result in an a negative phase of the arctic oscillation more often this winter. This causes upper level winds to dive south from the Arctic, carrying bitterly cold air into the U.S.
A weak El Nino is expected to develop as we head through the winter. This would cause the subtropical jet stream to be active more often, sending mild, moist air into the southern U.S., giving developing storm systems more moisture and the potential to produce higher amounts of snow or ice in the colder air to the north.
We expect a blocking pattern to develop often this winter, keeping colder air in place longer and the jet stream is forced to dive south into the central states. This, combined with moisture feeding in from the warmer Pacific Ocean could give Mid-Missouri a cold and snowy winter.
The ABC 17 Stormtrack winter forecast for 2014-2015 calls for colder than normal temperatures with an average winter temperature of 29 which is below the normal winter temperature of 32. Last year we came in with an average temperature of 27.
We expect prolonged cold periods with brief warm ups.
We are forecasting anywhere from 24 to 28 inches of snow this winter which is above the average winter snowfall of 18 inches.
Last winter we came in with 18 inches so we expect this winter to be snowier with a better chance of an ice storm.
