It’s the first major decision of Trump 2.0 and Republicans are split

Analysis by Zachary B. Wolf, CNN

(CNN) — How do you cram multiple big promises through a very tiny majority?

That’s the tricky question facing Republicans in Washington, who claim they’ve been given a mandate to enact sweeping permanent change after November’s election, but have one of the smallest congressional majorities in history to work with.

CNN’s Capitol Hill team has reported that Republicans are currently looking at two paths:

• “One big, beautiful bill” –- That’s how President-elect Donald Trump describes a behemoth piece of legislation pushed by House Speaker Mike Johnson to extend tax cuts, change border policy, set aside the debt ceiling and alter energy policy.
• Two bills – Senate Majority Leader John Thune prefers moving on immigration and energy first and then working on tax cuts later in 2025.

We know one thing for sure

Republicans aren’t putting on the pretense of pushing for bipartisanship. In either the one-bill or two-bill scenarios, they’ll utilize the complicated budgeting process known as “reconciliation” to get around Democratic obstruction in the Senate and deliver something big with only a simple majority.

Here’s how CNN’s Manu Raju and Sarah Ferris outline the complicated reconciliation process:

Why reconciliation?

Unlike most legislation, which can be blocked by a minority in the Senate, reconciliation is exempt from the filibuster because it is supposed to allow lawmakers to reconcile the budget. Ironically, it is often used to do the opposite.

Here’s how Raju and Ferris explain the leverage strategy behind one massive bill:

Trump and his allies know that they can count on two years of unified control before the next election and that reconciliation is the most direct route to deliver a key piece of legislation.

How is reconciliation usually used?

American legislators have fallen into a pattern in recent years. A new president is elected with control of the House and the Senate and they use reconciliation to enact a signature piece of legislation in their first two years in office. They then lose control of the House of Representatives in the next midterm elections. Variations on this pattern have occurred in each of the last three presidencies.

• Barack Obama. A strong Democratic majority in the Senate still needed reconciliation to finalize his signature achievement, the Affordable Care Act, and pull it over the finish line in 2010.
• Donald Trump. Trump and a much smaller Republican majority used reconciliation to pass his sweeping tax cuts into law in 2017. Cuts for individuals included in that bill expire this year, and Trump wants to extend them.
• Joe Biden. Despite an even split in the Senate, Biden used reconciliation twice to pass big spending bills: 2021’s American Rescue Plan, which addressed the Covid-19 pandemic, and 2022’s Inflation Reduction Act, which didn’t actually have much to do with inflation, but instead included elements related to climate change, lowering prescription drug prices and more.

Does reconciliation ever fail?

Yes. During his first term, Trump and Republicans initially tried to use reconciliation to repeal ACA, also known as Obamacare, but failed when three Republican senators opposed the effort. Arizona Sen. John McCain dramatically killed the effort with a late-night no-vote on the Senate floor as he was being treated for brain cancer. McCain has since died.

That failure to repeal Obamacare continues to sting Trump and Republicans, and they will have it in mind as they consider how to proceed with their agenda when he retakes the White House. For what it’s worth, Trump still says he’d like to replace Obamacare, but he only has “concepts” of a plan, which he hasn’t shared publicly.

In fact, Republicans have not publicly shared their specific plans for any of their current top priorities related to immigration, energy production or taxes. There will be serious debates on what they can pass related to any issue – such as on immigration, especially if a legislative debate happens alongside Trump’s promised mass deportation effort.

But extending tax cuts should be easy, right?

Trump made a lot of new tax promises on the campaign trail in 2024, including ending taxes on tips and social security, among many other things. Taken together, they would greatly reduce the revenue the US government uses for services and the social safety net. CNN’s Tami Luhby has reported that extending the current tax cuts and adding on all of Trump’s additional promises would “blow a nearly $8 trillion hole into the federal budget over the next decade.”

It’s also worth noting that there was not unanimous Republican support for his tax plan in 2017.

Twelve Republican representatives and one Republican senator opposed the tax cuts bill in Trump’s first term. Most of those votes were from lawmakers representing districts in New York and New Jersey who were angry that the law drastically reduced the amount of state and local taxes their constituents could deduct from federal tax bills. A few of those lawmakers remain in Congress, including New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, who, despite her opposition to Trump’s signature legislative achievement, is now among his most loyal supporters on Capitol Hill. Trump actually tapped Stefanik to be his US ambassador to the United Nations, an important point since she would need to leave elective office once confirmed, further trimming Republicans’ House majority.

What is the math in the House?

It’s tight. Along with Trump’s pick of Florida Rep. Mike Waltz to be his national security adviser and the exit of former Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz, who is no longer Trump’s pick to be attorney general, the House majority would shrink to 217 Republicans compared to 215 Democrats early in Trump’s term. Johnson may have to wait for those seats to be filled in order to pass anything remotely controversial. Gaetz’s replacement, for instance, won’t be elected until April 1. The timeline for replacing Waltz and Stefanik will not be known until they resign.

How long does it usually take to pass a major achievement?

It depends. In Trump’s first term, Republicans ultimately failed in their effort to repeal Obamacare with reconciliation in July 2017. The subsequent tax cuts legislation was signed by Trump into law in December of that year. During Biden’s term, the Covid-focused American Rescue Plan was signed into law in March 2021, while the Inflation Reduction Act came more than a year later, in 2022, just before a midterm in which Democrats lost control of the House of Representatives.

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