Why being great this year in the NFL may not be good enough
Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN
(CNN) — I’m such a big Buffalo Bills fan that I wore a cowboy hat with a Bills logo on it for New Year’s Eve. I have written over and over and over again on why this could be the Bills’ year.
Yet like anyone who knows their history, I have my doubts.
But it’s not just history that has me worried. It’s the fact that being great may not be good enough this year in the NFL.
The Bills stand at 13-3 right now. That’s outstanding, but there are four other teams – the Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles – with at least 13 wins. In a league where parity is supposed to rule, the idea of five teams with at least 13 wins feels outlandish.
Indeed, having so many teams with at least 13 wins through 16 games (and 17 weeks) is history making. Since 1978 when the league expanded to a 16-game regular season, the previous high was four teams with at least 13 wins through 16 games.
Perhaps more amazing is that the Bills’ 13 wins aren’t even close to being the most in the league. Three of the teams with 13+ wins – the Chiefs, Lions and Vikings – have 14 or 15 wins.
This is the first time ever that so many teams have at least 14 wins in a regular season. And as long as the Lions-Vikings game on Sunday night doesn’t end in a tie, it will be the first regular season in which two or more teams have at least 15 wins.
This isn’t to say the Bills’ case to be best in the league isn’t strong. They have beaten two of those teams with at least 14 wins: the Chiefs, who have only lost to the Bills, and the Lions. The Bills average game scoring margin is the best in the AFC.
Rather, I’m pointing out that any team’s claim to being the best is murky.
Take the Chiefs. I’ve noted that they have the most wins but their strength of schedule and margin of their victories leaves something to be desired.
The Lions, who are very likely going to lead the league in average game scoring margin, might not win their division.
The AFC team who has had the most impressive game margins after taking into account the difficulty of their schedule is the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens crushed the Bills earlier this season, but they have only won 11 games so far and haven’t clinched their division.
The Bills, of course, have their not so secret weapon in quarterback Josh Allen. He’s having a career year in which he is doing all the amazing things he normally does while limiting the number of sacks he takes and interceptions he throws (i.e. keeping the mistakes to a minimum).
I think the case for Allen to be the league’s Most Valuable Player (MVP) is strong, and I’ve made it before.
The problem is that the case for Allen being the best player in the league isn’t clear cut.
Only a dishonest fool wouldn’t recognize that Ravens’ quarterback Lamar Jackson has had a tremendous year. When you combine passing and rushing through stats – such as expected points added per play or ESPN’s QBR – Allen and Jackson are essentially equal.
And we haven’t discussed Eagles’ superstar running back Saquon Barkley. He has been mostly absent from the MVP discussion, despite the fact he could have set the all-time record for rushing yards in a single season. Even though he’ll very likely sit out the Eagles’ Sunday game, he’s already only the ninth man ever with at least 2,000 yards in a single season.
Finally, this is leaving out the ever-present Patrick Mahomes, who always manages to find a way to win in the postseason, as he isn’t part of the MVP conversation.
Making it harder to know who the best team is in the league is that there have been so many bad teams.
The Bills last week beat up on the now 4-12 New York Jets. Previously, they defeated the Jets, Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12), Tennessee Titans (3-13) and New England Patriots (3-13).
Now, you might be tempted to say the Bills have played an easy schedule. The thing is that there are nine teams this season with at least 12 losses – and there could be yet another one if the 5-11 New Orleans Saints lose to the 9-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday.
No NFL season has featured so many teams with at least 12 losses. In fact, the next closest total is seven teams with at least 12 losses, which last happened in 2013.
The Bills have actually beaten more really good teams than most other NFL contenders.
The bottom line is that I can’t claim that Buffalo is the clear favorite to win the AFC or the Super Bowl. The team does, though, have a really good shot and that’s all this Bills fan can ask for in the new year.
Favorite play of last week
It’s been such a treat to watch Allen evolve into the quarterback he has. Allen’s calling card will always be that he makes the impossible happen.
What is likely to be his last touchdown pass of the season to Keon Coleman was no exception.
Gosh, what a pass.
An unhappy memory
The 2022-23 season was the last one in which the Bills had 13 wins, like they have now. They had the best margin of victory when accounting for strength of schedule.
They got bounced in the AFC divisional round by the Cincinnati Bengals in what was an easy win for the Joe Burrow-led squad.
Perhaps hauntingly for me, it remains a possibility that the Bills play the Bengals in the first round of the playoffs this year – however small the chances of that happening.
The-CNN-Wire
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