Climate leaders were worried Trump would derail talks. They didn’t know their host would be the wrecking ball

Analysis by Angela Dewan, International Climate Editor

(CNN) — From the moment the US election results rolled in, climate leaders knew Donald Trump would be a blow to the COP29 talks in Baku. What they didn’t foresee was the demolition job Azerbaijan’s own leader would do from the inside.

In what should be one of the most urgent meetings of the year — aimed at slowing a global crisis fast spiraling out of control — the talks have descended into a circus of boycotts, political tirades and fossil fuels celebrations. Its host, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, has been its spectacular ringmaster.

Amid the chaos, prominent global climate leaders on Friday issued an open letter calling for a “fundamental overhaul” of the entire UN climate process. It was originally published saying the annual talks, known as Conferences of the Parties (COPs), were “no longer fit for purpose,” but that language was quickly removed.

A spokesperson for Sandrine Dixson-Declève, co-president of The Club of Rome — which published the letter — told CNN the edit was made because the authors’ “constructive criticism” had been seized upon by some parties to further their own interests at the talks, though she didn’t name any party in particular.

But the edit doesn’t change the idea that the talks are, indeed, losing their sense of credibility.

COP29 marks the third year in a row that the climate talks have been held in either a petrostate, or economy that relies heavily on oil and gas. The previous two were held in the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, and all three were criticized for alleged human rights abuses in the run-up to their events.

Among the open letter’s recommendations is to implement a “strict eligibility criteria to exclude countries who do not support the phase out/transition away from fossil energy” from holding COP presidencies.

Increasingly, the annual conferences have welcomed fossil fuel interests into the fold. This year, more than 1,700 fossil fuel lobbyists or industry players had been registered to attend the talks, according to an analysis by a coalition of groups called Kick Big Polluters Out.

This is a huge problem, said Alex Scott, a senior associate in climate diplomacy at the Italy-based think tank ECCO.

“[Azerbaijan’s president] doesn’t sound like a guardian of the Paris Agreement. There’s still a week left for this presidency to show that they are fulfilling that role,” she told CNN from Baku. The 2015 Paris Agreement unites most of the world’s countries in a common goal to limit global warming.

“But there are also 1,700 fossil fuel lobbyists walking the halls with us here,” she added, “and they’re also not guardians of the goals of the Paris Agreement.”

Aliyev accuses France of ‘brutal repression’

On Tuesday, Aliyev used his opening remarks at the talks to fend off criticism of Azerbaijan’s human rights record and defended its oil and gas riches as “a gift of the god,” in a speech that explicitly accused Western nations, NGOs and global media of “hypocrisy.”

On Wednesday, he again used his platform to launch a tirade against France and the Netherlands. Speaking to island states facing an existential threat of sea level rise, Aliyev accused both nations of a “brutal repression” of voices in what he called their “colonies,” in reference to overseas territories. He also blamed France for recent deadly unrest on the semi-autonomous island of New Caledonia.

Aliyev’s accusations were built around climate change arguments, but Baku has been at loggerheads with both France and the Netherlands over their stances on the Azerbaijan-Armenia territorial conflict.

France’s ecology minister, Agnès Pannier-Runacher, was due to lead the French delegation but canceled her trip over the remarks.

The European Union’s foreign affairs chief, Joseph Borrell, chimed in on X, calling Aliyev’s allegations “regrettable.”

“These unacceptable statements risk to undermine the conference’s vital climate objectives and the credibility of Azerbaijan’s COP29 presidency,” he wrote.

The geopolitical chaos comes as global climate leaders scramble to find ways to Trump-proof progress so far, as the president-elect has vowed to again pull the US out of the Paris Agreement.

Already the prospect of Trump is emboldening like-minded leaders to reconsider their own climate action. On Wednesday, Argentina’s foreign ministry pulled out its delegation from COP29 without giving any explanation. A source in President Javier Milei’s government later told CNN that Argentina was considering withdrawing from the Paris Agreement. Milei is a climate denier who has called global warming a “socialist hoax.”

The talks come on the heels of what is set to be the hottest year on record, and as back-to-back hurricanes killed more than 300 people in the US alone.

Some scientists are questioning whether containing temperature rise to 1.5 degrees is still possible. To have any chance of doing so, carbon pollution must halve this decade and the world must reach net zero by mid century.

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