Weather Alert Day: Hail and damaging winds possible with Saturday storms

An ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Alert Day has been implemented for Saturday afternoon until after midnight on Sunday due to the potential for isolated to widely scattered severe storms. The overall risk is relatively low, but if you have any outdoor plans, you'll want to stay weather aware and have ways of receiving alerts that will get your attention.

SETUP:

A wave in the upper level flow will push low pressure across the Upper Plains throughout the early half of the weekend.

This will ultimately increase low level flow from the south, increasing heat and humidity in mid-Missouri, before dragging a cold front through early Sunday morning.

Our Weather Alert day is not for heat, but it will be hot and humid, with a feels like temperature near 100.

With an unstable atmosphere overhead, storms may develop ahead of the cold front anytime between noon on Saturday, and the front's passing a little after midnight.

TRACK:

As temperatures quickly warm into the 90s on Saturday, we'll be watching radar for development. This will be what we call "round 1". There is somewhat low confidence in round 1 because there may be a lack of "trigger" for storms, meaning motions in the atmosphere will be rather benign through the afternoon, and not active enough to kick up storms. We will need this trigger because warm air further up in the atmosphere will put somewhat of a "cap" on storm development. Long story short, if we see storms they will be isolated but capable of producing severe weather. You will want to be weather aware from noon, through around midnight or just after, as the threat will begin with peak daytime heating (round 1), and linger through the passage of the cold front(round 2).

Round 2 will come likely later in the evening, ahead of our low level jet. This will be in increase in low level winds that will help stir up the atmosphere and generate storms despite less storm energy.

The strongest storms will happen in the afternoon if they can develop, as storm energy will wane as the sun sets.

IMPACTS:

This severe threat will most likely include hail and damaging wind, but we also cannot rule out the possibility of a tornado.

The threat for wind and hail is uniform areawide, and the newest tornado risk now covers the overwhelming majority of Mid-Missouri as well.