Earliest snowfall in Mid-Missouri in 5 years
For the first time since October 2013, Mid-Missouri is gearing up for an early season snowfall. On average, the first measurable snowfall according to the National Weather Service out of St. Louis, is November 27th, three weeks from now. But as unseasonably cold weather continues to filter into the region and knock temperatures nearly 20 degrees below average, our chances of seeing snow increases.
It’s uncommon to see significant snow chances this early in the season, but it has happened before. The earliest ever recorded was October 11, 1909, when a trace of snow fell. While each system is different, it’s looking like Mid-Missouri has a decent shot of snowfall as we head into Thursday evening.
As cold, dry air continues to filter in from the north, temperatures will plunge to near record lows as we head into the close of the week. It’s this cold air that will combine with a system tracking in from the Pacific Northwest, that will bring us our first shot of snow. While the system will have to overcome the cold, Canadian, dry air, enough moisture should be present to saturate the entire column of air by Thursday evening to give us our best shot of snow. It’s this dry air that can lead to what looks like snow on the radar, but nothing reaching the surface. This is due to evaporation of the snow falling through the dry air, which eventually leads to saturation of the air column. Once that is reached, snow will begin to make it to the surface.
No significant impacts are expected for the AM commute, as it will just be cold and cloudy across the region. However, as the day progresses and evening approaches we’ll begin to see a better chance for snow. Right now the best timing for a rain/snow mix looks to be in the late afternoon hours, with a transition to snow occurring into the evening. Any snowfall will be minor and cause little to no impacts as we head from Thursday evening into Friday morning.
Current forecast totals are for Mid-Missouri vary from a trace south to areas seeing an inch north of I-70. Not only will record cold be possible with this system, but it’s looking like we could break a snowfall record for Mid-Missouri. If we see over 0.3″ (1943), we’ll have a new daily snowfall record for a region, along with one of the earliest snowfalls we’ve seen for years.
Stay with ABC 17 Stormtrack as we continue to monitor the winter pattern and follow us on Twitter @ABC17Stormtrack.
