Tracking a cold front that brings limited rain chances

TODAY: Monday brings the heat back into the forecast! With an upper level ridge inching closer, and winds starting in a more southerly position than Sunday, temperatures will likely warm well into the upper 90s, with enough humidity to make it feel like low 100s. During the heat of the afternoon, a cold front will start to inch in to mid-Missouri. Between 3 p.m. and 6 p.m., storms may develop along the front. The atmosphere will be capped aloft, so there is a chance that storms may be prevented from firing during the afternoon. If they can, there will be sufficient ingredients for strong storms, with damaging winds, and some hail possible. The overall chance of storms is low, so the risk for severe weather is low, but not zero.

TONIGHT: The better chance for storms will come with an upper level disturbance just behind the surface cold front. This will likely develop non-severe storms and showers overnight, closer to the early morning hours on Tuesday. This keeps a small chance for rain in the forecast Tuesday. Temperatures cool to upper 60s and low 70s behind the front.

EXTENDED: Skies will clear behind the cold front in the morning, with mostly sunny skies through the afternoon. Things look largely dry and sunny through Friday, with highs in the low 90s each day. By the weekend, we're watching for a chance for rain from an upper level wave. At this point, it looks like a relatively small chance for rain, but at this point its our best chance for rain aside from the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday morning.