Drought dwindling into the end of September
Within the past couple of weeks, the drought monitor has made large strides towards widespread improvements across the state. The exceptional drought coverage area dropped by over 50% within the past week. Also, this week 10% more of the state is no longer in any level of drought– jumping from 21% up to 31%. With quickly improving conditions, it’s just as easy for conditions to reverse back, however, long range forecasts predict that the majority of the drought could continue to lift within the next couple of weeks.
By the end of this week an approaching cold front will bring the next chance for widespread rainfall. As the front stalls we could see on and off showers and storms through the weekend, which could rack up 2″+ of rainfall by Sunday morning. Estimates bring heaviest band across central parts of mid-Missouri. If the front stalls further to the south, the heaviest band of rain would move south with it.
In addition to the short term forecast, long range forecasts predicts above average rainfall as we close out the month of September. From now until October 1st average rainfall accumulation for Columbia sits at 1.69″. The Climate Prediction Center predicts a 40-50% chance of above average rainfall through October 1st. That means we see a moderate chance of 1.69″ of rain or more as we close out the month.
Considering the short term chance 2″+ of rainfall this week, as well as confidence in above normal accumulation through October 1st, we likely will continue to see the drought bust. Currently, in Missouri over 50% of the drought is only at a level 1 or 2 drought, which is considered abnormally dry to moderately dry. Specifically, 26% of Missouri is abnormally dry, with 28% of the state in a moderate drought. To completely lift these two levels from the drought we would only need a trace to 3″ of rainfall. With that said and all things considered, the majority of the state would be at large improved from this long term and widespread drought.
Of course, the forecast is ever changing. For updates on specific rainfall totals, stay with the ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team on air and online.
