Irma one of the strongest hurricanes ever in Atlantic Basin

At 185 mph and with gusts up to 225, Hurricane Irma remains one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin. As of 5 p.m. Tuesday, Irma continues to show signs of strengthening as it approaches the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. Hurricane watches and warnings have already been posted in advance of Irma, which will impact the islands over the next 12 to 24 hours.

While it is one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded, it’s not the strongest. That title goes to Allen which struck Texas in 1979 with winds of 190 mph. And though Irma is a very powerful hurricane, as the storm continues to track off to the west the next several days, it will likely go through a period of weakening and strengthening. This is due to the interaction with land that could occur and the likelihood of Irma undergoing eyewall replacement.

While there is general agreement on the path of Irma, there is still some uncertainty with the hurricane. The path of the storm takes it into the Caribbean and will impact the Dominican Republic, Haiti and even Cuba. Where it goes from there is still largely unknown. While there is higher confidence that Florida will see direct impacts from Irma, the uncertainty lies in the strength of Irma as it approaches the coastline and if Irma will take a sharp turn to the north before making landfall.

To understand why this would occur, one must look at the weather setup across a good portion of the nation and Atlantic. Currently a Bermuda high is strengthening in the Atlantic Ocean with the jet stream sagging south into the eastern half of the nation. When Irma reaches the point where these two interact and there’s a weakness in the ridge, the storm may take a sharp curve north.

Here is what we know:

– Irma is a strong Category 5 storm

– It’s tracking west at 15 mph

– U.S. impacts are likely

Here are the unknowns:

– The strength of the Bermuda High

– The location of the jet stream

– Where Irma will track north

Model consensus is fairly uniform until the drastic northerly turn. It’s here where models diverge a bit and where the uncertainty increases. With each pass that the NOAA Hurricane Hunters make into the storm, more data is being collected that will then go into future weather models to give a better idea of where the storm will go.

For Mid-Missourians whohave family in Florida or along the East Coast, one does not need to pay attention to the exact path of the storm. Instead, it’s important to focus on the impacts. Hurricane force winds extend up to 60 miles away from the center, with tropical storm force winds extending up to 175 miles.

Depending on the path of Irma as it nears Florida, this will largely determine how severe the implications will be from the hurricane.

One thing is for certain, if Irma makes landfall in Florida, it would be the first time in recorded history that two strong hurricanes hit the United States in the same season.

Stay with ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather as Hurricane Irma continues to race towards the US and follow us on Twitter @ABC17Stormtrack.