Political Science experts weigh in on 50th district race

On August 8th, constituents from the 50th district will be heading to the polls to vote to fill a vacancy in the Missouri House of Representatives.

ABC 17 News spoke to political science experts at Columbia College about what it will take to win the race on Tuesday.

“Of all of the districts that include Boone County, the 50th district is by far the most republican of them all,” said Terry Smith, a Professor of Political Science at Columbia College.

Smith is also someone who predicted President Trump would beat Hilary Clinton in the 2016 Presidential Election.

He said in August, people are usually not tuned into the special election, as people are still in vacation mode or getting their kids ready to head back to school.

“Special elections are strange breeds because they’re almost always held at weird times when either nothing else is going on, or it’s a real low turnout for the election. So, the issue is going to be turnout and getting your base out and getting anyone above your base is a bonus,” said Smith.

Earlier this week, ABC 17 News reported on both candidates updated campaign finance dollars.

The democrat candidate, Michela Skelton has raised nearly $100,000 and the republican candidate, Sara Walsh, has raised a little more than $60,000.

ABC 17 News asked if campaign dollars actually make a difference in the election results.

Smith said, “It would help them get more votes, but the issue is will it help enough.”

He said it’s all about your target audience and how you target them.

While looking at an attack ad sent out by the Missouri Republican Party, he said, “It especially appeals to the rural Missouri people and a tremendously emotional reaction of what happened in the fall of 2016. Anytime you want to fire up conservatives just mention the name Melissa Click.”

However, if Michela Skelton wins, he said it would be a significant upset.

“Missouri democrats could say, ‘Boy, you know what’s her recipe, because we need some more of that.”

No matter what happens in the special election one thing is absolutely certain… A woman will fill former representative Caleb Jones’ seat in the legislature.