Storm threats this week, explaining the MCS
The weather pattern becomes more active starting Wednesday as a cold front drops into Missouri. Ahead of this front the air has become unstable due to warm, moist air carried in with southerly winds over the past few days. Air is considered unstable if it continues to rise when given a nudge upward. And this “nudge” is expected to happen Wednesday, causing storms to form. However, although we have ample instability to help storms grow, wind shear is forecast to be low Wednesday which will likely reduce the number of storms which are able to become severe.
Not only do we watch for afternoon and evening storms during the summer months but also for organized clusters of storms which can form overnight over the Central Plains and track south into Mid-Missouri through the late night and early morning hours. These often produce heavy rain and strong winds along with frequent lightning and are more common from May through July as the low level jet stream becomes more frequent. The low level jet stream is a narrow ribbon of fast moving air at 1000 to 3000 feet above the ground which develops after sunset. This carries warm, moist air in from the south, feeding developing thunderstorms, and helps them become more organized. These mesoscale convective systems (MCS) usually move into Mid-Missouri in the late-night or early morning hours.
We are watching for possible development of these clusters of storms both Thursday and Friday nights over Kansas and Nebraska which could affect Mid-Missouri Friday and Saturday mornings. It is too early to pin down details but something we will monitor as new forecast model data comes in through the week. Please watch ABC17 News for newest storm forecast information and check back here for updates.
