Russian aggression stokes fear in Ukraine, says professor with MU ties

COLUMBIA, Mo. (KMIZ)

Tensions continue to escalate between Russia and Ukraine as Russia seeks concessions from the West, including that Ukraine will not gain admission to NATO.

Russia has massed troops at its border with Ukraine in what observers say is part of Russia's effort to keep the smaller nation in its orbit -- and away from strong ties with Western Europe. Russia has repeatedly denied planning to invade Ukraine, but it has an estimated 100,000 troops stationed near Ukraine borders.

Oksana Zamora, a Ukrainian professor who spent six months at the University of Missouri in 2018 as part of a faculty exchange program, said the tensions mirror those seen in 2014, when Russia invaded Crimea.

"I would say like in 2014 but much scarier," she said in describing Ukraine today. "Because in 2014, it was really difficult to understand how can it happen ... But then it happened, then people start to understand that actually, there is nothing impossible, especially when the person is led by greediness," Zamora said of Russia's actions.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken amplified his warning against a Russian invasion of Ukraine on Sunday, saying “a single additional Russian force” entering Ukraine “in an aggressive way” would result in a severe response by the U.S. and its allies.

President Joe Biden said in a news conference last week that a "minor incursion" may not trigger the same response from NATO as an invasion. Biden later clarified that any Russian troops crossing Ukraine's border would constitute an invasion and would be "met with a severe and a united response."

Some Republican senators believe the Biden administration should immediately impose a round of sanctions on Russian officials in attempts to deter an invasion of Ukraine.

Zamora's first language is Russian but she also speaks Ukrainian. She was born and raised in Ukraine, and has both Russian and Ukrainian roots in her family but said she is a "typical Ukrainian."

Zamora said tensions are rising among the citizens of Ukraine. She said while most seem to support the current president and his embrace of Europe over Russia, others are unsatisfied with economic developments.

Zamora said Ukrainians are stressed.

"It's mentally terrible to live here right now," she said. "You realize it's a beautiful country with nice people, with big resources, and if you work in some big intellectual sphere like I do and you analyze economic data you understand there is a potential in this country, if you work like students like I do you see there is a youth potential in this country."

She said many Ukrainians including her are faced with the fact that everything they know and love could be taken away at any moment.

"People started to love being Ukrainian, to be proud of that and then you understand that at any moment you can wake up or you can be running away. You know, leaving everything you invested in, everything you know and love can be taken away," Zamora said.

Zamora said for the past week she and her friends have begun to pack an emergency backpack in case they need to flee.

"You understand you might ... be leaving behind pieces of yourself, your friends and your family, not everyone has cars so not everyone can escape. You are painfully thinking about your friends and your family how you're going to save them or if you can save yourself," Zamora.

Zamora said she and the citizens of Ukraine are hoping for the support of the world.

Zamora said she believes the Ukrainian people will stand up and fight if Russia invades the country, but she said there is concern for people like her and others who cannot fight. She said what could happen to them at this point is a big question.

Zamora explained she has no plans to leave and neither does anyone that she knows. She said deep roots tie her to the place where she was born.

"You can easily leave, sell apartment and go, but most of us have family ties and historical routes here," she said. "For Americans, it's okay to travel and start in one city and go to another city and somewhere else. Ukrainians it's different, we are physically and mentally tied to the place where we are born."

Zamora said Ukraine has deeper things to focus on like climate change and health care, instead of war and Russian politics.

Stephen Quackenbush, associate professor of political science in the Truman School of Government and Public Affairs at the University of Missouri, said much of the tension is based on Russian President Vladimir Putin's desire to restore Soviet Union-era power.

"Putin wants to reestablish Russian dominance over all of the, you know, the former Soviet republics," Quackenbush said.

Quackenbush said much of today's standoff is tied to what happened in Crimea in 2014, when Russia invaded and then annexed the peninsula. Intelligence officials say Russia is also supporting separatists in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.

Quackenbush said Putin has made ridiculous demands from Ukraine. But Quackenbush said he believes the Russian forces at the Ukraine border are a show of force, not necessarily a guarantee of war.

"I mean, this is the kind of thing that you could do in preparation for an invasion, but also, it's a show of force," Quackenbush said. "And so you're hoping that this will get the other side to concede, to back down in face of the show of force."