This Week with Dr. Terry Smith

Next weekend, Kelsey Kerwin, Gyasi Simmons and I will be heading to Cleveland to report to you live from the Republican National Convention. The following week we’ll be at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia.

Most political analysts predict both conventions will be unlike any in the past.

Dr. Terry Smith is a political science professor at Columbia College and is our guest for “This Week.”

I start our conversation by asking Dr. Smith what he expects at the upcoming RNC. He’s starts his reply with his well-known sense of humor. Here is a transcript of our conversation:

Dr. Terry Smith: That it will be a calm convention, and that Trump will be unanimously nominated and a Martian will be the V.P.

Joey Parker: Okay. I knew you were going down that road, so you think all bets are off, right?

Dr. Terry Smith: No. I think that Trump will get nominated.

Joey Parker: Sure.

Dr. Terry Smith: And, I don’t think this “Dump Trump” movement has much traction. There’s not much precedent for it.

Joey Parker: The GOP can’t. Regardless of what they really want to do, they can’t.

Dr. Terry Smith: Yeah. The rules are very confining. So, this is what the GOP has as their nominee. I think who he has as his V.P. will be very interesting and will be that person’s legacy, for sure: Trump’s V.P. nominee.

Joey Parker: And, a lot of money is on Gingrich. Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House. Do you want to hazard a guess as to who you think it might be?

Dr. Terry Smith: You know, I don’t spend a lot of time thinking about the vice presidency because in the past 70 years it’s only mattered once. They’re symbolic. People think about them for a couple of news cycles. So, actually I don’t. Especially this year, because of how visible this whole process has been. But then, every (cycle) somebody comes along as a vice presidential nominee and there’s a buzz about it for a while. Think Sarah Palin eight years ago. Gingrich would be interesting. He’s about as self-disciplined as Trump is, so it could be a campaign for the ages if that’s the ticket.

Joey Parker: Well, it’s a historic ticket regardless, or race all the way around. Obviously, we have the possibility of a first female president. A first former FLOTUS, First Lady of the United States. If Donald Trump wins, never having held elected office and he’s be the oldest president. Remember with Ronald Reagan, that was one of his biggest hurdles.

Dr. Terry Smith: Well, it didn’t matter then, and of course all of the candidates, all three of them, are older. That’s different, but at the same time I think the average age of presidential nominees is in the sixties.

Joey Parker: Would you like to hazard a guess on the Democratic vice presidential candidate?

Dr. Terry Smith: I was talking with a Democrat this morning who thinks, this may be more wishful thinking than anything, that Clinton has nothing to lose by naming Senator Warren as her running mate and that a two-female ticket would not be a problem, and Warren is probably the most popular person in the Democratic Party right now. I don’t know if that’s going to happen, I think it will be a more conventional choice in the sense that the Democrats will draw from one of the other constituents. In the long run these things don’t really matter. The only thing that matters with the vice presidency this year, and they said this back in 1980, as well, is that whoever is president is going to be 70 years old and so is somebody ready to take over should the president die in office.

Joey Parker: You have a quiz for folks who will be closely watching the convention?

Dr. Terry Smith: Yeah, this is for people who want to try their hand at political punditry. There’s five things to look for: One is, do they manage the actual event well. Because if they run the convention well then that’s a sign that they might run the government well. Secondly, is their message delivered effectively? And especially, do they have an elevator speech, is there a thirty second speech that encapsulates what they and the party stand for? Third is unity. Can the nominee draw the party together going out the door of the convention and into the campaign? Fourth is coalition expansion. In other words, can the candidate and party go beyond the base and bring in new voters or even convert the opposition. And finally what’s called political renewal. During the convention will there be future stars that will be brought out and give speeches? Think Obama in 2004, Bill Clinton in 1988. Those were presages, for the Democrats to be sure, of the future. Who will be brought out like that this time? So those are the five things to look for.

Joey Parker: I’ll be one of the folks on the ground in Cleveland at RNC and in Philadelphia at the DNC, and I’ll keep that in mind. Dr. Terry Smith, thank you for joining us.

Dr. Terry Smith: Always a pleasure.