Expert: Sharp decrease in state unemployment claims expected
COLUMBIA, Mo. (KMIZ)
An expert said Thursday that it's not surprising to see a sharp decrease in new unemployment claims.
The Missouri Department of Labor and Industrial Relations reported Thursday morning that statewide unemployment claims last week were down by almost half from the week before.
According to the labor department website, 59,271 Missourians filed for unemployment last week, while at least 101,722 residents filed for unemployment in the second week of April.
Peter Mueser, University of Missouri economics professor, said the number of unemployment claims is historic, but the large volume of claims wasn't going to continue indefinitely.
"It's just an inevitable result of the arithmetic crisis," Mueser said. "The number of claims tells you how steep the curve is going down, but it doesn't tell you how far down it is and you're going to reach the bottom at some point."
Department officials said the unemployment rate for March 2020 was 4.5%. Nearly 200,000 state residents filed for unemployment last month, more than 250,000 have filed so far in April.
About 4.4 million Americans also filed for unemployment last week. U.S. officials say about 16.2% of the workforce has been affected by COVID-19.
Mueser said the number of claims can't continue with that very high level, because there just aren't that many employed people.
"When you have a major disruption like we did at the beginning -- when everybody was under these orders to stay home, all of a sudden people who had jobs no longer had them," Mueser said. "That caused an enormous blow from that employee pool to the unemployed pool."
Mueser explained that there are still employed people who are working that can work at home or who aren't losing their jobs.
He said unemployment claims may start to go down because many workers who were at risk of losing their jobs have already been laid off or otherwise.
"At some point," Mueser said. "That flow can't continue indefinitely."
Mueser said that at the end of course, at some point the economy will come back to a kind of equilibrium situation, but there is a high chance there will still be more claims than there were before because the economy was very strong before the COVID-19 pandemic.
Elizabeth Todd has been unemployed due to COVID-19.
Todd called the unemployment office for a week straight to try to get any information to help her through this process as she was denied for unemployment claims twice.
"I got that denial letter and had to call in and figure out what's going on," said Todd. "And we still don't have answers, or even when I'm going to get be getting that unemployment."
Todd said as of now everything is still up in the air, and it's just a waiting game at this point as the Department of Labor said the only thing she can do is request a payment every week until they reach a decision.
"The whole process is new to me," Todd said. "And I'm sure it's new to many other people too, and it is a lot of confusing information."
The Missouri Department of Labor and Industrial Relations officials said that Missouri’s unemployment online filing system, UInteract has been performing well.
Other than two short outages, the system has been taken down a few times overnight for maintenance and enhancements to accommodate the new programs.
Over 90% of our claimants have been able to file online, without assistance.
Before calling or emailing the DES, Department of Labor officials said individuals are encouraged to check for additional information on unemployment by visiting its website, watch how-to videos, check for correspondence and claim status on their account and ask unemployment questions of the Department’s virtual assistant.
Stay up-to-date on this developing story here and on ABC 17 News at 5 p.m. and 6 p.m.
