Iran’s hardliners see a weakened Trump – and want more to end the war
By Mostafa Salem, CNN
(CNN) — Iranian hardliners who believe Tehran has already emerged victorious in its war with the United States are seizing on President Donald Trump’s midterm losses to demand that he pay a steeper price for an exit from the conflict: a “new world order” that favors the Islamic Republic.
The influential group of conservatives intensified their rhetoric this week, publicly demanding that Washington not be offered compromises in ongoing negotiations.
After the midterm elections saw Trump’s Republican Party suffer a major defeat, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei warned in a message Wednesday against the “slightest inclination towards submission” – a caution hardliners believe was directed to Iran’s negotiators.
Trump acknowledged in a call with Fox News that the war in Iran was partly to blame for the Republicans’ midterm losses but Vice President JD Vance was more explicit, saying in a lengthy X post Wednesday that “the reason we lost is the war.”
Those admissions appear to have galvanized Iranian hardliners with conservative politicians and media outlets celebrating Trump’s midterm loss as a win for Iran. A hardline outlet, Raja News, published a column saying the US should not be given a “way out” before it “pays the price” for attacking Iran, and Trump should not be allowed to “escape with a rushed agreement.”
“The achievements of the Iranian people and the capital gained… should not be undermined by providing a way out for the other side,” the columnist wrote Wednesday. “The only way to avert the shadow of war is to increase power, maximize pressure on the US and energy prices, and make the enemy regret its actions.”
Escalation risk
Eight months into the conflict, the war is in a stalemate with little military action or significant diplomatic progress. Over the past few weeks, Iranian negotiators have shuttled between Tehran and Doha, as Qatari mediators attempt to bridge the gaps between the sides to reach an agreement that will trigger negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program and end the war.
“The Iranian leadership sees the recent election results as a vindication of its strategy against the US,” Hamidreza Azizi, a senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, told CNN. “As a result, Tehran’s position regarding the requirements for a deal with Washington is likely to harden further.”
Trump simply declaring “mission accomplished” and ending the war with Iran is unrealistic without the US president receiving concessions from Iran over its nuclear program to offset domestic backlash, Azizi said. His other option would be launching a major military operation to claim he had ended the war from a position of strength.
“The problem is that given the latest election results, the Iranians see no reason to offer Trump any nuclear concessions,” Azizi said. “They are also expected to insist even more strongly than before on their demand that the United States take the first step before any deal can materialize.”
A regional official told CNN on Thursday that the risk of renewed war with Iran has eased after the Republican Party’s defeat in the US midterm elections, but escalation remains probable.
In October, Trump said that the US would not attack Iran before the midterms, but did not rule out or confirm if strikes would resume afterward – leaving people living in the Middle East on edge as Iran threatened to expand the scope of its strikes in retaliation.
Over the past week, the US carried out strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island, including last night. Both sides have tried to play down the intensity of the strikes in what appears to be attempts to preserve ongoing talks.
“Now we’re making a decision, do we want to go further? I would rather not destroy the rest of the country if possible but maybe I’ll have to,” Trump told reporters on Thursday. “You’ll know soon enough.”
Diplomatic activity across the Middle East has increased since Tuesday’s midterm elections.
On Friday, Qatar said that Trump had called Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani to discuss de-escalation, and a day earlier, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke with his counterparts from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Pakistan, Kuwait, Jordan, Turkey, Cyprus and Qatar.
How does the war end?
Even as Iran’s hardliners publicly welcome further conflict, experts say the country’s leadership seeks a deal with the US that ends the war while allowing Tehran to emerge with new regional leverage.
“That means emerging with stronger deterrence, lasting leverage, and a regional order in which Washington and Israel can no longer keep Iran isolated, under constant pressure, and vulnerable to attack without facing potentially intolerable costs,” Sina Toossi, a senior non-resident fellow at the Center for International Policy, told CNN.
Iran has demanded that Washington fulfill seven conditions before Tehran opens the Strait of Hormuz, including ending the war “on all fronts,” compensation, the withdrawal of US forces, and the lifting of sanctions. It remains unclear whether the US will accept these demands.
The US and Israel’s war on Iran killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, his top commanders, nuclear scientists, and hundreds of civilians, while destroying key military sites. The conflict inflicted massive economic losses on the Islamic Republic and brought decades of shadow warfare into the open.
As the conflict stagnated, the US imposed a maritime blockade on Iran and reinstated sanctions, further straining the economy and adding pressure on ordinary Iranians.
“Its economy and infrastructure have suffered tremendously, and continued confrontation carries enormous risks. But that is precisely why Iranian leaders are reluctant to relinquish their remaining leverage without securing something lasting in return,” Toossi said.
Domestically, the war amplified fractures between the hardliners, who seek further conflict with the US, and the moderates, who believe diplomacy and global outreach could relieve economic pressure on Iran.
Amid domestic disagreements, Iran’s leadership has stayed relatively united in its approach to the US, prioritizing short-term tactics that raise the cost of the conflict globally by striking regional oil facilities and disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that carried about one-fifth of the world’s daily oil output before the war.
Yet it’s in its long-term strategy that Iran seeks to gain the most, by emerging from the war with greater leverage and regional strength than before.
“Tehran wants its neighbors to recognize that their security cannot rest exclusively on American military power, and that any durable regional arrangement must accommodate Iranian interests,” Toossi said. “It wants a settlement that shifts the strategic balance in its favor, limiting Washington’s ability to isolate, pressure, or attack Iran at will.”
In his message, Khamenei said the war ushered in a “bright, hopeful dawn” and was laying the “groundwork for a new world order” – offering a glimpse of the prize Iran ultimately hopes to secure from the conflict.
That grand ambition, however, now collides with a US president who may be determined to assert himself abroad as he faces mounting constraints at home after the electoral defeat.
CNN’s Becky Anderson and Nadeen Ebrahim contributed to this report.
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