Tracking near record highs and fire risk Monday

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy and very mild with lows in the upper 60s.

TOMORROW: Mostly sunny, hot, and windy with highs in the lower 90s. Gusts could reach up to 25 mph with low humidity, so the fire risk will be increased across areas experiencing drought conditions.

EXTENDED: It's been a very warm close to our weekend with Columbia setting a new record high of 91 this afternoon, breaking the previous record of 89° set in 1962. Heat looks to continue Monday and Tuesday with record highs possible; 94° is the goalpost on Monday and 95° is Tuesday's record. I think we may fall just shy on Tuesday due to clouds moving in, but nonetheless it will be 20-25° or so warmer than normal for this point in October. Heat eases Tuesday night as a surface cold front looks to stall out across Missouri and provide beneficial rain and storms between Tuesday night and Thursday. Behind all of the action will be a very cool high pressure system that will send temperatures below average into the weekend, with some upper 30s possible across northern Missouri on Friday and Saturday nights. Rain and storms look to move in on Tuesday night after sunset, and some may initially bring a few strong wind gusts. The ingredients are looking better to our west for more organized severe storms, and the Storm Prediction Center has the northern half of the area under a marginal risk for severe on Tuesday night. At this point I am monitoring, but not convinced to trigger a Weather Alert Day just yet. With the stalled front, we'll see this first round press east on Wednesday morning, leaving us with a relative lull with isolated to scattered showers and storms during the day Wednesday. As upper low pressure forces the trailing cold front east on Thursday, we'll see more widespread rain and storms through Thursday evening. Rain amounts between Tuesday night and Thursday will range between 2-2.5". Friday will be much more fall like in the wake of this system, and set the tone for the rest of the weekend as skies clear and highs only reach the low to mid-60s. We could fall into the upper 30s to around 40 both Friday and Saturday nights.