Intelligence from Chinese groups aiding in Iran’s increasingly effective targeting of US sites, sources say

By Katie Bo Lillis, Zachary Cohen, Kylie Atwood, Haley Britzky, CNN

(CNN) — Satellite imagery and intelligence support provided by Chinese groups has helped Iran threaten ships in the Strait of Hormuz and launch precision strikes on US military bases in the Middle East, part of a dramatic improvement in Iranian targeting capabilities over the past several months, according to a series of recent American intelligence assessments described to CNN by four sources.

The imagery allowed Iran to strike a US base in Jordan in July, a strike that killed three American service members, with a level of precision US officials believe was otherwise beyond Iran’s capabilities, the sources said.

Chinese geospatial data has also enhanced Iran’s ability to track ships through the strait, giving Iranian drones and missiles a higher chance of successfully hitting targets, according to one of the officials. Two other sources said the data has allowed Iran to use otherwise unsophisticated heatseeking drones that cannot be maneuvered in midair to threaten ships by helping time launches.

The Chinese support helps explain how Iran has steadily become more accurate as sporadic waves of strikes have been launched in recent months, though sources indicated it’s one of several factors increasing Iranian military effectiveness. Russia has also been providing Tehran with support, and some officials have pointed to Iranian forces’ mounting combat experience during the conflict as key factors.

US officials say that it’s difficult to precisely quantify the scope of China’s assistance, in part because it’s not clear whether the Chinese government has ordered it or is merely tacitly allowing the support, and some officials disagree about how much Beijing is helping. A fifth source familiar with US intelligence noted that recent reporting has suggested China would prefer that the disruptions in the strait, which have ratcheted up global oil prices, cease.

But the intelligence support has shaped new tactics for Iran.

In the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran sees as its greatest point of leverage according to US officials and outside analysts, Tehran has continued to launch attacks against US military escorts and commercial vessels by firing a large number of heatseeking drones towards ships once they reach a particular geographic landmark in the waterway, described by one US official as a “knuckle.”

The heatseeking nature of the Iranian drones is not considered overly sophisticated technology, but Iranian forces have shown they can effectively track US escort operations — with help from Chinese satellite imagery — and launch attacks at the most opportune moment, the sources said.

The tactic amounts to firing a large number of drones and hoping they latch onto the heat signature in ships’ hulls, two US officials said.

And the pace of operations can be intense: During one recent escort operation, US forces intercepted over a dozen Iranian missiles and shot down nearly 20 drones, while also conducting offensive operations against roughly 60 targets around the strait, one of the officials said.

The intelligence support comes on top of technical assistance from both China and Russia that has helped Iran make improvements to the guidance systems on its missiles and drones.

But at least in some areas — like in the July attack on the base in Jordan — officials agree that Chinese-provided intelligence data has proved decisive.

“There’s a reason that their targeting has improved, and it is due to some assistance,” according to one of the sources. “Getting reps on the battlefield helps, but getting a helping hand helps a lot too.”

The Chinese embassy in Washington and Iranian diplomatic officials did not respond to a request for comment ahead of publication.

The Defense Department declined to comment. The White House did not reply to a query ahead of publication.

The Wall Street Journal first reported that Iran used Chinese satellite data in its July attack on the base in Jordan.

At the time of that reporting Guo Jiakun, China’s foreign ministry spokesperson, was asked for comment. “China always strictly fulfills its due international obligations. We oppose exploiting the conflict to throw mud at China,” he said.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping is in Washington for meetings with President Donald Trump on Thursday and Friday.

The Trump administration has largely declined to publicly condemn the government of China for any direct or indirect support to Iran even as reports have surfaced on potential intelligence and military aid. But despite Trump’s desire to maintain positive relations with Xi, one of the US officials said that this was likely to be a topic of discussion during the state visit.

Asked in the days after the Jordan attack if China was providing targeting assistance to Iran, Secretary of State Marco Rubio declined to discuss the matter.

“Nothing that China has done has in any way changed the trajectory of … the conflicts we’re having with Iran,” Rubio told reporters. “In fact, in some cases, they’ve actually been quite cooperative,” he added, citing China’s public opposition to Iranian efforts to toll the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran adapting

The Trump administration has sought to crack down on Chinese commercial satellite imagery of the region during the conflict, which officials have warned has endangered American troops. In May, the administration sanctioned three Chinese satellite companies that it said had provided imagery that “enables Iran’s military strikes against US forces in the Middle East.”

As the US war drags into its seventh month, officials say Iran has adapted its battlefield tactics to continue to threaten US assets in the region and keep pressure on the United States and its allies to surrender to Tehran’s demands. Iran is shooting down MQ-9 Reaper drones “left and right,” one of the sources familiar with recent intelligence assessments said, and there are still regular alerts about drone activity.

“They’re getting better because we’ve essentially given them more time to train,” another source familiar with recent assessments said. The same source noted that China has also sent assistance to Iran in the form of air defense systems.

And multiple officials expressed deep frustration at the obvious American vulnerability to missiles and drones that operate at low to medium altitude — as opposed to higher-altitude projectiles that the US has developed expensive, highly-sophisticated air defense systems to counter. It is forcing the US to put further defenses in place at some US military and diplomatic locations in the Middle East, said a source familiar with the matter.

Iran demonstrated that it was capable of striking American bases in the Middle East in 2020, after President Trump ordered the killing of a top Iranian general during his first term.

But its technical ability to strike a precise target has improved drastically since then, multiple officials said.

“Iranian strikes damaged and destroyed hundreds of buildings and structures at US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman and Jordan” during the war’s first months, according to a recent report from the Pentagon’s inspector general.

Those Iranian strikes contributed to significant changes in how US troops have traditionally operated in the region, the report said. CENTCOM “shifted personnel, assets and storage facilities” as they came under attack from Iran and its proxy forces.

Iran’s import of dual-use components is also a major concern for US officials given Iran’s recent ability to reconstitute its military capabilities and industrial base.

“Without the Chinese parts they wouldn’t be as likely to keep fighting, it is as basic as that,” a US official said.

Still, the trend of Iran rebuilding its military inventory is consistent with previous assessments from US intelligence agencies and also a consequence of Trump’s decision to halt full combat operations before the US military completed its entire target list, another official added.

Editor’s note: This story has been updated to clarify CNN’s efforts to obtain comment ahead of publication.

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